CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs largadosypelados - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83be0c767909cfa31939be347322185b8de11167c15acbb92f09aa96b6e5b378
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ShindeNof ShindeN, largadosypelados
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked largadosypelados | 40c | 3,613$1,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,453.24 | 1,513 | 57.2%865 W · 648 L | +65.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked ShindeN | 59c | 3,549$2,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,444.57 | 1,011 | 52.3%529 W · 482 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked largadosypelados | 39c | 1,778$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.99 | 1,779 | 59.1%1,052 W · 727 L | +104.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked largadosypelados | 14c | 1,469$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.78 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed largadosypelados | 7c | 1,283$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.56 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0852…655cbacked largadosypelados | 27c | 1,201$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.56 | 76 | 17.1%13 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed ShindeN | 66c | 750.46$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.49 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…a9b3backed ShindeN | 69c | 724.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.4 | 1,163 | 54.3%631 W · 532 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked largadosypelados | 29c | 649.7$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.57 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked ShindeN | 58c | 600$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a70…0519backed ShindeN | 62c | 515.65$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.69 | 388 | 35.6%138 W · 250 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…b805backed largadosypelados | 60c | 501.72$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.5 | 219 | 47.5%104 W · 115 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked largadosypelados | 36c | 460.07$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.59 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…f9b2backed largadosypelados | 42c | 447.17$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.57 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f41…547cbacked ShindeN | 67c | 430$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.8 | 244 | 47.1%115 W · 129 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed largadosypelados | 30c | 427.95$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.86 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4f…9b0cbacked largadosypelados | 41c | 378$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.16 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed ShindeN | 60c | 350.84$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.39 | 470 | 53.2%250 W · 220 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…a45dbacked ShindeN | 59c | 340.66$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.79 | 304 | 50.7%154 W · 150 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15bc…4a7ebacked ShindeN | 59c | 340.65$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.78 | 201 | 47.8%96 W · 105 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98a…914bbacked ShindeN | 61c | 337.27$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.29 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked largadosypelados | 43c | 327$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.21 | 2,349 | 42.5%998 W · 1,351 L | -72.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…51dbbacked ShindeN | 64c | 311.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.97 | 401 | 48.4%194 W · 207 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba23…cd7ebacked ShindeN | 52c | 290$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.35 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…9712backed ShindeN | 74c | 278$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.43 | 281 | 73%205 W · 76 L | +21.6wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7020…d655backed largadosypelados | 45c | 254.15$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked largadosypelados | 16c | 251.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 130 | 60.8%79 W · 51 L | +8.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…4f76backed ShindeN | 57c | 246.35$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.07 | 519 | 42.2%219 W · 300 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685f…c586backed ShindeN | 62c | 245.16$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.16 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked ShindeN | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked ShindeN | 63c | 192.19$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.38 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed ShindeN | 61c | 188.85$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.95 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked largadosypelados | 50c | 185$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…9da3backed ShindeN | 62c | 179.14$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 1,008 | 69.3%699 W · 309 L | +152.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffa…7710backed ShindeN | 78c | 171.38$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 106 | 43.4%46 W · 60 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed ShindeN | 80c | 167.5$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 496 | 46.6%231 W · 265 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x971f…1e98backed ShindeN | 60c | 163.82$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.9 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked ShindeN | 46c | 154.52$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.44 | 275 | 49.5%136 W · 139 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbd…4476backed ShindeN | 62c | 129.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 159 | 58.5%93 W · 66 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked largadosypelados | 38c | 125.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked largadosypelados | 46c | 121.88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 630 | 38.6%243 W · 387 L | -26.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed largadosypelados | 26c | 117.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df3…b8bebacked ShindeN | 60c | 103.57$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked ShindeN | 51c | 102.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 656 | 62.3%409 W · 247 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked largadosypelados | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 1,848 | 41.7%770 W · 1,078 L | -69.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed ShindeN | 77c | 97.08$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 890 | 46.1%410 W · 480 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked ShindeN | 59c | 95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 655 | 48.9%320 W · 335 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked ShindeN | 61c | 87.66$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 198 | 51.5%102 W · 96 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ac…47e6backed ShindeN | 59c | 83.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 673 | 72.2%486 W · 187 L | +119.1wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed ShindeN | 63c | 76$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed largadosypelados | 36c | 71.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked largadosypelados | 22c | 69.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 1,630 | 43.2%704 W · 926 L | -32.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x183b…b6e9backed ShindeN | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 320 | 54.4%174 W · 146 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f06…a799backed ShindeN | 61c | 64.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed ShindeN | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 457 | 54.5%249 W · 208 L | +18.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…377ebacked ShindeN | 68c | 56.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 361 | 74.8%270 W · 91 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5a…96bcbacked ShindeN | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e0…0d8abacked ShindeN | 59c | 49.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 330 | 57.3%189 W · 141 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed largadosypelados | 41c | 45.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 965 | 43.5%420 W · 545 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked ShindeN | 78c | 42.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 746 | 53.5%399 W · 347 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked ShindeN | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 187 | 53.5%100 W · 87 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f1…dd82backed ShindeN | 70c | 39.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c60…01febacked ShindeN | 61c | 33.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 191 | 51.8%99 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked largadosypelados | 38c | 30.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 675 | 47.3%319 W · 356 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ca…19c8backed ShindeN | 61c | 29.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked ShindeN | 79c | 28.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 422 | 55.7%235 W · 187 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked largadosypelados | 47c | 28.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 2,136 | 42.9%916 W · 1,220 L | -68.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…8dd0backed ShindeN | 54c | 27.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 172 | 43%74 W · 98 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eba…cb3dbacked largadosypelados | 41c | 25.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 170 | 67.6%115 W · 55 L | +14.0wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked ShindeN | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked ShindeN | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 1,302 | 41.2%536 W · 766 L | -50.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x082a…cc8abacked ShindeN | 60c | 23.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed ShindeN | 67c | 20.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked largadosypelados | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked ShindeN | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 271 | 56.8%154 W · 117 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed largadosypelados | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 754 | 38.9%293 W · 461 L | -38.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed ShindeN | 77c | 19.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed ShindeN | 78c | 18.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 408 | 57.1%233 W · 175 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912e…0eaebacked ShindeN | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 364 | 34.1%124 W · 240 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs largadosypelados - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 PlayoffsShindeN won
- Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs largadosypelados - Map 2 WinnerShindeN won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.