TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs largadosypelados - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
ShindeNof ShindeN, largadosypelados
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$76,653
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$85,191

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,653 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x86e9…4cdfbacked largadosypelados56c12,606$7,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,072.0336453.8%196 W · 168 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed ShindeN51c5,550$2,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,719.4819949.7%99 W · 100 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked ShindeN58c4,046$2,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,711.8276058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0852…655cbacked largadosypelados15c3,996$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.027617.1%13 W · 63 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-54.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ShindeN45c3,873$1,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,130.145,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0133…64bcbacked largadosypelados76c1,799$1,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,367.113265.6%21 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed largadosypelados20c1,666$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.8551942.2%219 W · 300 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed ShindeN35c1,414$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.8949646.6%231 W · 265 L+1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked largadosypelados45c1,094$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.982,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked ShindeN49c1,061$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.181,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a70…0519backed ShindeN50c999.97$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.9738835.6%138 W · 250 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked ShindeN32c959$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.629235.6%104 W · 188 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed ShindeN58c857.35$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.351,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked largadosypelados50c718.09$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.781,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7020…d655backed largadosypelados52c658.97$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.613147.3%62 W · 69 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked largadosypelados38c571.77$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.853,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0a7e…b805backed largadosypelados48c555.4$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.7321947.5%104 W · 115 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked ShindeN46c524.95$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.287,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked largadosypelados40c510.86$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.493,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f8c…9a58backed largadosypelados32c508.9$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.985646.4%26 W · 30 L-6.1wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-26%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked ShindeN77c500$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.51,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked largadosypelados48c478$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.282,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x685f…c586backed ShindeN53c424.93$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.937464.9%48 W · 26 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94fb…d8c2backed largadosypelados69c415.68$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed largadosypelados30c385.65$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.82,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa55c…1066backed ShindeN45c372.18$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.736649.5%181 W · 185 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked ShindeN49c338.9$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.981,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked ShindeN48c335.28$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.321,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked largadosypelados43c316.6$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.44,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed ShindeN46c297.06$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.4189046.1%410 W · 480 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked largadosypelados15c279.74$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.651,65032.7%540 W · 1,110 L-49.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed ShindeN42c269.06$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.182,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed ShindeN46c265$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.145754.5%249 W · 208 L+18.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0593…9712backed largadosypelados72c260.08$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18728173%205 W · 76 L+21.6wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+11.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcdbd…d0dfbacked largadosypelados14c259.42$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0613060.8%79 W · 51 L+8.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked largadosypelados46c258.66$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.34,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed ShindeN39c244.16$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.1175438.9%293 W · 461 L-38.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed largadosypelados17c240$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.847856.7%271 W · 207 L+1.6wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked ShindeN41c225.66$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.812,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed largadosypelados47c225$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.111,00869.3%699 W · 309 L+152.8wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xf54b…91f7backed largadosypelados47c213.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016538.8%64 W · 101 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x034a…9ddcbacked largadosypelados71c211.84$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010647.2%50 W · 56 L-13.4wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-27.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed ShindeN45c209.91$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.5540639.4%160 W · 246 L-1.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked largadosypelados34c204.82$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.031,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed ShindeN70c188.21$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.374,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked largadosypelados38c184.08$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.212,47334.6%855 W · 1,618 L-188.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed largadosypelados43c173$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.142,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked ShindeN45c170$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.538844.3%172 W · 216 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6376…0d2abacked ShindeN52c166.78$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.5689248%428 W · 464 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked ShindeN32c164.14$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.0563038.6%243 W · 387 L-26.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x54ac…47e6backed largadosypelados46c158.63$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9967372.2%486 W · 187 L+119.1wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+24.7%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x09da…50bcbacked ShindeN51c155.55$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.2842255.7%235 W · 187 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked largadosypelados36c148.66$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9560032.3%194 W · 406 L-49.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-38.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbfda…5504backed largadosypelados41c140$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4725142.6%107 W · 144 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bf3…4f00backed ShindeN50c134.98$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.9640857.1%233 W · 175 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e5a…96bcbacked ShindeN40c129.83$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.915246.1%70 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed largadosypelados64c127.11$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6652150.3%262 W · 259 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1982…bc7bbacked largadosypelados23c126$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9831845.3%144 W · 174 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed largadosypelados59c119.61$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7026075%195 W · 65 L+23.6wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+11.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked ShindeN35c104.85$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.612,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed largadosypelados21c101.72$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.072,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed ShindeN47c101$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.965,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe9b…cbe5backed largadosypelados45c100.67$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4544244.1%195 W · 247 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb87…a45dbacked ShindeN51c100.4$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.1630450.7%154 W · 150 L-0.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15bc…4a7ebacked ShindeN51c100.4$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.1620147.8%96 W · 105 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…3ff8backed ShindeN60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4013649.3%67 W · 69 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed ShindeN52c98.97$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8947053.2%250 W · 220 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb98a…914bbacked ShindeN51c98.18$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8711446.5%53 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked ShindeN43c95$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.962,11047.2%995 W · 1,115 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x634a…dddfbacked ShindeN44c90.21$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.218947.2%42 W · 47 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x189e…5aaebacked ShindeN46c90$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.6618753.5%100 W · 87 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked largadosypelados30c77.39$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.881,63043.2%704 W · 926 L-32.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed largadosypelados26c76.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6420242.1%85 W · 117 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-28.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f06…a799backed ShindeN52c76.14$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.776647%31 W · 35 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b9a…73fabacked largadosypelados48c72.21$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6139353.2%209 W · 184 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7e0…0d8abacked largadosypelados68c63.81$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2233057.3%189 W · 141 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f57…3e7abacked largadosypelados49c60.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5665662.3%409 W · 247 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed largadosypelados33c56.7$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.566,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eba…cb3dbacked ShindeN54c55.78$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8117067.6%115 W · 55 L+14.0wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+12.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x81e9…b0cabacked largadosypelados69c54.58$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.662958.6%17 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked ShindeN48c54.19$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4274653.5%399 W · 347 L+9.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83b3…c2d7backed ShindeN49c52.46$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.966457.8%37 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc593…ea8cbacked ShindeN46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2727156.8%154 W · 117 L+13.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x971f…1e98backed ShindeN52c48.52$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.413548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b22…377ebacked largadosypelados72c44$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5636174.8%270 W · 91 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed ShindeN46c40.78$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0241853.6%224 W · 194 L-0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked ShindeN54c38.64$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9319851.5%102 W · 96 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed largadosypelados50c38.22$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2396543.5%420 W · 545 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed largadosypelados27c37.46$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2366436.6%243 W · 421 L-35.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x26c2…0cdfbacked ShindeN40c37.37$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3267547.3%319 W · 356 L-9.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83a…8355backed ShindeN50c34.76$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3136856.8%209 W · 159 L+13.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6628…3d33backed ShindeN72c33.15$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2842274.2%313 W · 109 L+14.4wins+0.03per pick71cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac71…f74cbacked largadosypelados42c31.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.138737.9%33 W · 54 L-15.9wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-37.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked largadosypelados71c30.58$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7137859.5%225 W · 153 L+1.4wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df3…b8bebacked ShindeN52c29.66$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3521254.2%115 W · 97 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a76…e27cbacked ShindeN67c29.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.772770.4%19 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5663…f2e5backed ShindeN46c24$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9624152.3%126 W · 115 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf43f…3b20backed ShindeN48c22.85$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.882458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x104b…e9cebacked ShindeN67c22.22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3318481.5%150 W · 34 L+13.6wins+0.07per pick74cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b25…10aabacked ShindeN49c20.83$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6785054.4%462 W · 388 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.