MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83e657767c7c3ec312b9fc3cfba766f6a4ef5e7cd81446127dbb51af2f692dae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 74c | 1,980$1,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.93 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Over | 29c | 1,526$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.85 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 26c | 1,060$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.63 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 73c | 717.71$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.21 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Over | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 14c | 374.43$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…60c0backed Under | 76c | 262.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.57 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 72c | 234.54$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.43 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 25c | 164.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 76c | 105.17$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 72c | 101.68$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Under | 77c | 65.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 133 | 61.7%82 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 33c | 45.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 64c | 30.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 75c | 19.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 74c | 15.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-5.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.