MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf60c48b0a68390cd1aadd5985d1561c4370564406a5effefe42322fdc1d997d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 5,712$2,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,394.05 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 5,657$3,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,375.97 | 1,436 | 49.3%708 W · 728 L | -6.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 57c | 1,771$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.13 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 49c | 1,025$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.86 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 769.23$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.23 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9121…bd6cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 18c | 500$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs | 29c | 482.75$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.31 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 73c | 479.86$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.56 | 253 | 66.4%168 W · 85 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs | 26c | 418.67$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.86 | 8,251 | 46.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d06…755bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 370.8$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.76 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 332$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.44 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa7…736ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…3824backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed St. Louis Cardinals | 73c | 242.43$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 8,654 | 52.6%4,550 W · 4,104 L | +506.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed St. Louis Cardinals | 79c | 164.56$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 123.82$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 110.7$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Chicago Cubs | 34c | 105.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Cubs | 21c | 101.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 4,524 | 48.9%2,214 W · 2,310 L | -42.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals | 48c | 78.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 6,128 | 55.4%3,394 W · 2,734 L | +347.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 43.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…eee0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago Cubs | 40c | 32.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 5,848 | 43.7%2,556 W · 3,292 L | -189.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked Chicago Cubs | 55c | 32.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…d35abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 32.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8b…9cd7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 48c | 31.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 28.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +147.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 25.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 9,862 | 46.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L | +40.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ce…3273backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 23.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-5.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.