MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f381413fdb648ed9ab63bae1f994d9e6aded24bdfe4f4a62ae25f3cd9a85321
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 5,912$2,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,187.56 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 3,000$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.99 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs | 33c | 1,733$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.75 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 1,355$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 755.28$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.45 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 715.72$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.82 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed St. Louis Cardinals | 65c | 668.49$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.31 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 581.55$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.59 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9121…bd6cbacked Chicago Cubs | 37c | 506.91$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.56 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 65c | 499.25$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.06 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd8c…dfbebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 490.56$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.6 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed St. Louis Cardinals | 67c | 456.72$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.72 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 67c | 456.72$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.72 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 313.72$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.94 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 37c | 249.75$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Chicago Cubs | 20c | 243.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 7c | 207.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 199.68$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 193.55$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.55 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c8…a865backed Chicago Cubs | 18c | 177.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 170.97$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.26 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 161.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.39 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 151.71$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.13 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 121.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago Cubs | 22c | 103.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Chicago Cubs | 34c | 82.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 63.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 60.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 76c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 46.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 326 | 47.9%156 W · 170 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a0…bb4ebacked Chicago Cubs | 37c | 35.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fee…3d67backed Chicago Cubs | 37c | 35.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 34.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…880ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 20.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +10.3wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 18.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0129…96a8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 212 | 45.8%97 W · 115 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-5.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.