MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdc7b605bdf0f2e1d6ddbbf0179413b563bc3057b2f1262710953814a2e849f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Under | 60c | 8,723$5,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,474.72 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 61c | 4,816$2,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,861.87 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 38c | 4,377$1,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,674.89 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 41c | 3,651$1,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.65 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Over | 41c | 2,472$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.5 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…11d5backed Under | 54c | 2,037$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 51c | 2,000$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.53 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 60c | 1,800$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 38c | 1,625$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.93 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 1,588$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.84 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 40c | 1,546$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.05 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 60c | 1,286$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.79 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 40c | 1,258$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.3 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 60c | 1,052$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.29 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 13c | 948.85$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.35 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 40c | 826.17$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.6 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 60c | 598.94$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.58 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 60c | 581.1$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.39 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 38c | 551.04$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.58 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 53c | 492.23$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.45 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 36c | 321.23$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.64 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 34c | 320.65$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.83 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 31c | 271.22$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d64…26cebacked Over | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 63c | 215.65$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.42 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 37c | 212$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.44 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Over | 36c | 143.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 143.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 75c | 139.85$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Over | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Over | 40c | 112.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 61c | 110$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 43c | 104.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 40c | 99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 28c | 92.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 39c | 83.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 45c | 83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f0…78cfbacked Under | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3496…21e8backed Over | 38c | 79.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 27c | 76.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Over | 50c | 60.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 54c | 52.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e15…bdb2backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…c67cbacked Under | 67c | 49.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 39c | 45.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 61c | 36.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a0…bb4ebacked Under | 62c | 35.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 40c | 34.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 39c | 33.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 61c | 33.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb7…f72dbacked Under | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfc…e101backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 41c | 26.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd88e…a8c6backed Under | 62c | 25.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Under | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…760ebacked Under | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…1bc0backed Under | 74c | 14.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-5.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.