MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce49edabd447bbe865d0c71d2709e83af96f3a1dd544891d98d15f27e235bbbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 73c | 4,373$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.1 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 28c | 3,733$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.46 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 25c | 2,616$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.84 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 2,562$1,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.19 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 656.37$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.56 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 51c | 618$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.82 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 23c | 482.55$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.82 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2af…17d2backed Over | 10c | 450$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 44c | 290.42$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.13 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 72c | 269.84$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.1 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fa…3262backed Under | 56c | 241.53$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.27 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 27c | 183$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 29c | 158.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 33c | 154.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 71c | 152.11$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 34c | 129.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 36c | 124.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Under | 72c | 121.79$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 71c | 119$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 78c | 104.68$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…bb1dbacked Under | 59c | 101.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f0…78cfbacked Under | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 70c | 54.21$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 45c | 51.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6189…8f69backed Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 71c | 29.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 61c | 26.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f7…d1b3backed Over | 45c | 24.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Under | 58c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…33a6backed Under | 68c | 20.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Under | 60c | 18.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 58c | 18.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f0…e7b3backed Under | 66c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 70c | 16.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bf…1e64backed Under | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c04…4b4fbacked Under | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3250…60fabacked Under | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb958…350abacked Under | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 70c | 15.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-5.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.