MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4d3e942e15ed3cffede934415fc99f9cfd9b98a4f137bccd3ca93192352875e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 11,623$6,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,999.23 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 9,439$4,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,024.6 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8f…449bbacked Chicago Cubs | 68c | 5,249$3,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,556.31 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 40c | 4,230$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,709.66 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs | 33c | 2,137$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.74 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 1,833$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,201.28 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed St. Louis Cardinals | 31c | 1,667$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.78 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 1,571$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.43 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 1,417$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.14 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 857.14$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.14 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 857.04$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.58 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 797.01$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.73 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 652.01$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.42 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Chicago Cubs | 66c | 598.83$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.5 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Chicago Cubs | 65c | 534.99$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.74 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 439.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.39 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf429…969ebacked Chicago Cubs | 27c | 401$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.27 | 198 | 42.9%85 W · 113 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 33c | 400$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals | 77c | 367$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.59 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed St. Louis Cardinals | 33c | 362.79$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.07 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Cubs | 66c | 355.73$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.78 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 275.04$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.79 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Chicago Cubs | 66c | 265.15$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Chicago Cubs | 22c | 172$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 158.77$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.97 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dd…5672backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked St. Louis Cardinals | 33c | 141.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.15 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc947…3462backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 134.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef5a…492abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 128.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9edf…c034backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 114.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Chicago Cubs | 66c | 108.91$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.08 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fee…3d67backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f4…567dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 80.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…1bc0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 48c | 70.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Chicago Cubs | 30c | 50.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 46.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 32.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Chicago Cubs | 45c | 30.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…bc23backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…eee0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ce…3273backed St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-5.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.