TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9c09…d35a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
91
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Lol, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Lol at 57 out of 100; worst CS2 at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Lollast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT3070%21 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Lol — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: GIANTX vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winnerbacked Karmine Corp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$27.66
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Team Heretics - Game 2 Winnerbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$35.04
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Team Heretics - Game 1 Winnerbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+49.6%+$68.35
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winnerbacked KT Rolster Challengers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$24.79
LoL: LYON vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Regular Seasonbacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$52
LoL: LYON vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winnerbacked Sentinels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.12
LoL: FlyQuest vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winnerbacked Cloud9 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$24.13
LoL: FlyQuest vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winnerbacked Cloud9 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$13.83
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.45
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winnerbacked Movistar KOI · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+78.3%+$106.14
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Groupbacked HANJIN BRION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$19.59
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Groupbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$11.82
LoL: LGD Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$6.16
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winnerbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+186.4%+$53.89
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.62
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$14.22
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffsbacked Team Secret Whales · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+39.1%+$14.9
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked HANJIN BRION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.31
LoL: Solary vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winnerbacked Solary · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$9.28
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed BNK FEARX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$19.07
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.5
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 1 Winnerbacked Estral Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.72
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs PCIFIC - Game 3 Winnerbacked PCIFIC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$16.06
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffsbacked Nongshim Red Force · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$16.21
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winnerbacked BNK FEARX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.87
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Dota2last resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT2454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.28
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys - Game 2 Winnerbacked TEAM VISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.02
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys - Game 1 Winnerbacked TEAM VISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+52.6%+$13.59
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Elimination Roundbacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+67.8%+$17.21
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winnerbacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.72
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.16
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$15.66
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.23
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.82
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$41.91
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$27.42
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked Xtreme Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.82
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.95
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffsbacked Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$17.59
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 2 Winnerbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.23
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora - Game 1 Winnerbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$12.99
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$8.99
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+668.5%+$925.3
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+62%+$44.56
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$11.66
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+64.2%+$27.7
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group Bbacked Tundra Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.36
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+60.6%+$25.85
Dota 2: Aurora vs ex-HEROIC - Game 2 Winnerbacked ex-HEROIC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.87
All 24 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT1540%6 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mexico vs. England: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+100%+$18.96
Mexico vs. England: Mexico O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$40.02
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Mexico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.04
Mexico vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.36
Brazil vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.16
Will France win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+42.3%+$50.93
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$205.62
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$39.88
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$32.96
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.79
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.57
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.77
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.42
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$31.54
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.92
All 15 picks, newest first.
CS2last resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-46.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
CS2 — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Younglings vs IMHOWeRGOAT (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #8 Playoffsbacked IMHOWeRGOAT · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.11
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winnerbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$25.29
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winnerbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.92
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winnerbacked BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.17
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winnerbacked Nemiga · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.58
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffsbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+59.1%+$16.85
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffsbacked Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.16
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winnerbacked Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$29.83
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic - Map 2 Winnerbacked magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.9
All 9 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG - Map 1 Winnerbacked LOUD · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.