TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Yandexof Team Spirit, Team Yandex
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$370,307
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$416,886

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $370,307 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 235 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Team Yandex63c69,673$43,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,693.4528748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Spirit26c38,806$10,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,002.0696557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Yandex62c24,870$15,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,569.521,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Yandex62c24,863$15,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,511.480256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x009b…26dabacked Team Spirit37c24,039$8,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,894.5921144.1%93 W · 118 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Team Spirit38c23,335$8,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,751.628159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed Team Spirit38c20,945$7,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,959.0318351.9%95 W · 88 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6373…a0b7backed Team Spirit1c20,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014825%37 W · 111 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-2.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Team Spirit25c19,345$4,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,919.0789741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Team Yandex79c14,310$11,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,997.1611953.8%64 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Team Yandex62c14,216$8,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,444.432549.8%162 W · 163 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Spirit35c11,715$4,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,127.311,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed Team Spirit38c11,311$4,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,288.1641056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked Team Yandex63c8,617$5,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,165.2513851.4%71 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Team Yandex64c7,844$5,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,831.3656955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed Team Spirit38c7,306$2,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,770.1129042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed Team Yandex62c6,685$4,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,515.9531248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Team Spirit39c6,370$2,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,470.5956542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Team Spirit40c5,057$2,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,012.7788539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Team Spirit38c5,026$1,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,896.4143344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Team Spirit37c5,000$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,85041944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked Team Yandex65c4,930$3,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,734.7165863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Spirit18c4,902$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.491,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Team Yandex63c4,865$3,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,820.0549455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x889c…6ed0backed Team Yandex74c4,360$3,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.151989.5%17 W · 2 L+4.5wins+0.24per pick66cpaid+42.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbb11…8f3fbacked Team Spirit38c3,888$1,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,477.4410551.4%54 W · 51 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c93…2079backed Team Yandex67c3,672$2,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.83562.9%22 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0a5…518abacked Team Spirit39c3,393$1,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,318.5825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-68.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked Team Yandex58c3,188$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,328.1950347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Team Yandex63c3,128$1,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,165.2961456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked Team Spirit34c3,059$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.1221650.9%110 W · 106 L-25.3wins-0.12per pick63cpaid-21.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Spirit33c2,941$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.9299844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Spirit36c2,881$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,031.61,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Spirit34c2,853$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.61,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa557…6e77backed Team Spirit41c2,743$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.839850%49 W · 49 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Spirit36c2,451$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.371,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Team Yandex65c2,300$1,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81536248.6%176 W · 186 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Team Spirit35c2,259$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.769644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Team Spirit35c2,252$795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.3760646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Team Spirit27c2,232$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.0427737.2%103 W · 174 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7437…e1e9backed Team Spirit23c2,112$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.255135.3%18 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-24.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Team Yandex64c2,104$1,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.4415848.1%76 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Team Yandex63c1,996$1,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.5119847%93 W · 105 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Team Spirit38c1,913$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72748539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31f4…bb20backed Team Spirit16c1,854$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.523016.7%5 W · 25 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-61%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ff8…5e5dbacked Team Yandex63c1,754$1,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.457361.6%45 W · 28 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xddc6…13c4backed Team Spirit18c1,703$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31411449.1%56 W · 58 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed Team Yandex62c1,658$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.235151.3%180 W · 171 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xba06…8024backed Team Yandex57c1,630$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.8115950.3%80 W · 79 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed Team Spirit36c1,600$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57621146.9%99 W · 112 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Team Yandex64c1,590$1,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.550769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5fbe…7d07backed Team Spirit43c1,589$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.2125444.5%113 W · 141 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Team Spirit6c1,300$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7337811.1%42 W · 336 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Team Spirit41c1,300$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53356852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Team Yandex72c1,300$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36436547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Team Yandex64c1,289$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.0635951.3%184 W · 175 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Team Spirit37c1,250$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45922340.4%90 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Team Yandex62c1,200$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45631547.6%150 W · 165 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd525…1815backed Team Spirit35c1,179$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.655740.4%23 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Spirit22c1,173$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.932,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Yandex65c1,163$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.9686659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Team Yandex65c1,162$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.7735758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Team Spirit37c1,158$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.3560349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe077…f5eebacked Team Spirit38c1,090$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41813442.5%57 W · 77 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked Team Spirit21c1,050$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.570052.3%366 W · 334 L+47.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed Team Spirit13c1,044$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.4920030.5%61 W · 139 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Team Spirit38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38020145.3%91 W · 110 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked Team Spirit30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30013157.3%75 W · 56 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Yandex64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36079959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Team Spirit41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41046451.5%239 W · 225 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Team Yandex65c1,000$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35041055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Team Spirit10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002825%7 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-36%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f9c…101cbacked Team Yandex70c999.99$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3008458.3%49 W · 35 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Team Spirit43c999.99$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.9929143.6%127 W · 164 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked Team Yandex59c900$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36927060%162 W · 108 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Team Yandex65c900$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31560552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22d1…b52bbacked Team Spirit8c878.38$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702250%11 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f46…85c0backed Team Yandex62c874.19$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.1922868%155 W · 73 L+15.4wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc714…d152backed Team Spirit35c857.13$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30021158.3%123 W · 88 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39a7…bcb7backed Team Yandex60c800$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32010949.5%54 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Team Spirit7c799.99$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dc5…d1a4backed Team Spirit36c796.92$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.899045.6%41 W · 49 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed Team Spirit27c703.96$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.2736343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Team Spirit36c678.57$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.2954246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Team Spirit42c654.77$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27595342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Team Yandex59c640$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.453844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c75…de96backed Team Yandex65c615.38$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.3822461.2%137 W · 87 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e12…e867backed Team Spirit38c573.54$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.956633.3%22 W · 44 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-24.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e01…b0b5backed Team Spirit36c555.56$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020642.7%88 W · 118 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Team Spirit30c538.79$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.6468649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed Team Yandex74c515.37$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.8733453%177 W · 157 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Team Yandex64c513$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.6541050.2%206 W · 204 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Team Spirit20c511.92$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0465647.3%310 W · 346 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed Team Spirit31c511.06$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.4345352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Team Yandex59c508.47$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.4786451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked Team Yandex63c500$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18512452.4%65 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Team Spirit21c499.99$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.551544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7900…3393backed Team Yandex63c495.09$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.448457.1%48 W · 36 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x177e…c244backed Team Spirit38c490.6$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.2429546.1%136 W · 159 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked Team Spirit4c485.85$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4337018.9%70 W · 300 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.