TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Spiritof Team Spirit, BetBoom Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$404,369
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$515,265

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $404,369 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 242 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed BetBoom Team47c63,963$29,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,956.131,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Team Spirit53c42,596$22,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,019.9516147.2%76 W · 85 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Spirit53c29,000$15,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,601.8380256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8479…40dfbacked Team Spirit56c24,954$13,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,086.2310751.4%55 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x15d9…6b54backed BetBoom Team0c19,760$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.76633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed BetBoom Team47c15,358$7,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,273.9596557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked BetBoom Team43c15,000$6,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,425.5789741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3936…366dbacked Team Spirit54c12,500$6,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,7503250%16 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked BetBoom Team45c11,024$4,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,926.71,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1153…868bbacked BetBoom Team0c10,900$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2931357.2%179 W · 134 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Team Spirit56c10,702$5,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,708.869736.1%35 W · 62 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed BetBoom Team45c9,443$4,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,204.915951.6%82 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49f2…d7b4backed Team Spirit53c7,500$3,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5254143.9%18 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked BetBoom Team47c6,867$3,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,254.1739343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed BetBoom Team46c6,532$3,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,015.7441056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed Team Spirit51c5,892$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,892.0835062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Team Spirit54c5,889$3,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,685.2461456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed BetBoom Team46c5,110$2,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,363.816637.9%25 W · 41 L-6.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-23.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed BetBoom Team45c4,708$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,12055751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03a2…7e3ebacked BetBoom Team12c4,367$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.1212248.4%59 W · 63 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Spirit50c4,103$2,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,051.321,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03f8…d85abacked BetBoom Team51c3,818$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9504951%25 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Team Spirit74c3,804$2,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.5679859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Team Spirit54c3,750$2,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,72556852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed BetBoom Team43c3,240$1,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,397.9888539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed Team Spirit53c3,199$1,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,497.4731248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Spirit49c2,902$1,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,465.792,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97fd…3313backed Team Spirit52c2,675$1,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,284.1911547%54 W · 61 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked BetBoom Team50c2,545$1,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,272.1416746.1%77 W · 90 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Spirit62c2,400$1,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.9979959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xaab1…9b4fbacked Team Spirit67c2,352$1,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.718048.8%39 W · 41 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed BetBoom Team30c2,235$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.5425150.2%126 W · 125 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9851…1320backed BetBoom Team5c2,092$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked BetBoom Team48c2,071$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99042145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cf5…8483backed BetBoom Team38c2,066$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.975952.5%31 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed Team Spirit53c2,064$1,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.0410537.1%39 W · 66 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-24%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked BetBoom Team42c1,950$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.560646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2495…28f5backed Team Spirit74c1,758$1,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.119161.5%56 W · 35 L+0.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked BetBoom Team45c1,722$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.1341944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed BetBoom Team47c1,457$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.8844645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed BetBoom Team48c1,450$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.9930336.6%111 W · 192 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed BetBoom Team36c1,306$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.771,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Spirit57c1,250$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.961,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Team Spirit50c1,162$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.9937945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed Team Spirit53c1,111$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.177742.9%33 W · 44 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed Team Spirit50c1,100$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55025935.5%92 W · 167 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Spirit56c1,091$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.131,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked BetBoom Team41c1,086$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.6796645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a11…eb9dbacked BetBoom Team47c1,064$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50016945%76 W · 93 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed BetBoom Team47c1,059$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50057449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Team Spirit51c1,052$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.5856542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d36…51debacked BetBoom Team1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105330.2%16 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed BetBoom Team47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47031547.6%150 W · 165 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…a265backed BetBoom Team7c999.98$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705541.8%23 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Team Spirit63c977.82$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.271,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Team Spirit60c975.49$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.961,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbb…e5bcbacked BetBoom Team9c835.55$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.443345.5%15 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick35cpaid-12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked BetBoom Team42c828.46$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.1989749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked BetBoom Team47c807.89$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.7144149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed BetBoom Team40c750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked BetBoom Team46c721.78$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.0277256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3914…3db9backed BetBoom Team45c720$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.21850%9 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32e3…3a5cbacked Team Spirit54c650$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29912146.3%56 W · 65 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9852…111abacked BetBoom Team35c639.64$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22320452.5%107 W · 97 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96ef…cca4backed Team Spirit54c623.65$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.9316242.6%69 W · 93 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed BetBoom Team13c619.39$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6996245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38a7…cb12backed BetBoom Team37c593.86$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.912119%4 W · 17 L-3.7wins-0.17per pick36cpaid-52.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked BetBoom Team36c587.96$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.1543049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Spirit70c580.52$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.362,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f07…53d1backed BetBoom Team17c572.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021739.2%85 W · 132 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11d1…3b0dbacked BetBoom Team13c549.98$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734910.2%5 W · 44 L-5.6wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-61.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Spirit61c542.78$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.92,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Team Spirit62c539.4$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.1956548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed Team Spirit65c507.05$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.0541655.3%230 W · 186 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Team Spirit54c501.99$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.591,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed BetBoom Team46c500$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2301,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c9e…7928backed Team Spirit50c500$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.52937.9%11 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed BetBoom Team25c499.99$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12551544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Team Spirit54c492.23$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.7468649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43dc…86e1backed BetBoom Team32c464.97$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15024244.6%108 W · 134 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07f9…1513backed Team Spirit53c449.05$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.0515147.7%72 W · 79 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20b5…a3b5backed BetBoom Team49c411.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010934.9%38 W · 71 L-9.4wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked BetBoom Team39c411.39$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16048843.6%213 W · 275 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ebc…20a5backed Team Spirit75c402.65$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.661361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed Team Spirit59c401$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.2545951.9%238 W · 221 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Team Spirit65c399.99$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.216256.8%92 W · 70 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Team Spirit70c391.63$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.3760251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Team Spirit54c389.85$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.0388166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x758f…dfb7backed Team Spirit77c388.64$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6434667.9%235 W · 111 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfe4…4841backed Team Spirit55c366.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.361758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7253…5fa2backed Team Spirit54c365.44$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.15850%29 W · 29 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+19%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team Spirit58c363.75$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.531,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed BetBoom Team44c354.55$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15672154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed BetBoom Team35c353.65$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.063943.6%17 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0c…51dbbacked Team Spirit57c350.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.885950.8%30 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed BetBoom Team45c350$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.580544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf67d…c986backed BetBoom Team51c323.33$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16639042.1%164 W · 226 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cc5…d49fbacked Team Spirit55c315.02$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.732100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Spirit73c313.97$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.661,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Team Spirit52c304.08$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.9660349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.