MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f6113e4c40e27efac06e401f159237f3f79232680bd6116e775a69d8564503f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Over | 58c | 38,757$22,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,285.6 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 41c | 7,255$3,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,001.47 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 42c | 7,240$3,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,040.8 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Under | 42c | 7,240$3,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,040.8 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 42c | 7,143$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Over | 59c | 6,102$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,501.82 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda39…c640backed Under | 42c | 5,893$2,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,475 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +28%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 42c | 5,783$2,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,428.81 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 57c | 4,551$2,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,962.44 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 2,000$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 10c | 1,828$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.41 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Under | 42c | 1,266$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.63 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 42c | 1,055$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.47 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 43c | 997.33$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.85 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 42c | 887.52$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.9 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 42c | 816.97$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.13 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 42c | 800$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 58c | 774.23$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.96 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 46c | 763$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.98 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 12c | 762.83$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.56 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 42c | 667$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.47 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 58c | 586.05$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.14 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 43c | 503.57$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.57 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 60c | 416.67$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 53c | 382.3$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.68 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 29c | 286.25$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.76 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12a2…c60dbacked Under | 47c | 255.72$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.19 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Over | 54c | 252.75$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.26 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 42c | 250$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a24…a0fdbacked Under | 41c | 250$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 58c | 160$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed9…11f0backed Under | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 37c | 127.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddd6…4e4dbacked Under | 47c | 126.57$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Under | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed Under | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…b388backed Under | 42c | 99.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 59c | 90.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 42c | 83.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b9…2592backed Under | 42c | 60.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 55c | 51.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 43c | 50.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 43c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…d35abacked Over | 70c | 41.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 41c | 38.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Under | 42c | 38.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d19…a694backed Under | 42c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 35c | 34.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb208…e0b2backed Over | 59c | 30.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 54c | 21.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-6.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-7.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-8.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 12.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 13.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 14.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.