MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7c1a54bab85aa2d3bdb7ac6f36ee0a04383c1c8f59b699b1ff49014289fc6de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 51c | 9,658$4,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,960.69 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 38c | 3,475$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,155.35 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 52c | 3,099$1,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,501.94 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 2,219$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111.22 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Over | 76c | 2,000$1,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 51c | 1,776$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.25 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 45c | 1,705$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.06 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 1,395$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.42 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 1,272$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.28 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ec…0959backed Under | 79c | 847.35$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.41 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 51c | 593.35$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 47c | 402.2$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.02 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 56c | 380$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.2 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 59c | 361.44$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.57 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 45c | 256$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.15 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 59c | 239.19$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.12 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 59c | 239.19$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.12 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 36c | 206$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.46 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88ba…b99abacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 52c | 185.57$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.42 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 70c | 185.41$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.42 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 36c | 170.84$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.34 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 26c | 145.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.37 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 64c | 113.86$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.43 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…e8ccbacked Under | 64c | 104.64$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Under | 57c | 96.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 64c | 94.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed Over | 76c | 93.69$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 111 | 55.9%62 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 70c | 80.42$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ded…3350backed Over | 46c | 71.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08be…bea8backed Under | 65c | 69.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 34c | 69.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 23c | 66.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.36 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Over | 21c | 64.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 26c | 62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 50c | 51.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 23c | 47.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…2c72backed Under | 79c | 42.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 46c | 33.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 36c | 31.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Under | 51c | 31.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 44c | 30.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260b…aa9ebacked Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Under | 52c | 29.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 60c | 28.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 57c | 26.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 58c | 26.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 53c | 24.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Under | 71c | 21.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Under | 53c | 20.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc51…674abacked Under | 70c | 18.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 12.5this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-6.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-7.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-8.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 13.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 14.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.