MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x111011c093d1b6482eb67ba2eda51591ffa133a7349422e0b929813d807d59b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 58c | 4,288$2,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,820.68 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 3,777$1,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,881.32 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…68f3backed Under | 4c | 3,762$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.25 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 58c | 2,709$1,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,138.62 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…0fcabacked Under | 4c | 2,020$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 46c | 1,820$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.49 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…d922backed Under | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 7cpaid | +162.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 31c | 1,210$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.89 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 56c | 1,090$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 65c | 908.78$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.11 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 57c | 700.99$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.23 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 45c | 618.3$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.74 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 53c | 563.38$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.38 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 37c | 480$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.6 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Under | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 68c | 400$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 61c | 393.44$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 49c | 214.29$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.29 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 212.25$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.76 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 43c | 201.64$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.71 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 50c | 197.16$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.58 | 795 | 55.6%442 W · 353 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 50c | 197.1$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.55 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 50c | 197.1$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.55 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 50c | 197.1$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.55 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 58c | 166.46$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.31 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 44c | 156.41$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.41 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 45c | 135$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.13 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 34c | 132.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.42 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 49c | 106.16$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 41c | 103.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…e8ccbacked Under | 44c | 102.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Over | 50c | 99.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 18c | 91.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 44c | 81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed Over | 50c | 49.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 111 | 55.9%62 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 42c | 36.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…01c6backed Under | 52c | 36.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 76c | 33.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 56c | 32.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 56c | 30.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd030…f3f0backed Over | 50c | 29.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…5710backed Over | 50c | 29.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf45c…5f7abacked Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8232…e71dbacked Over | 57c | 28.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ded…3350backed Under | 48c | 28.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Over | 79c | 25.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 79c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-6.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-7.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-8.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 12.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 13.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 14.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.