MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c7082a1fffcf0ea9b57816658389f70b8bb6d38a02310f4a55ce781d9cdbd2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x085e…9aeabacked Over | 49c | 2,982$1,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,513.71 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 3c | 2,938$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.97 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 49c | 2,589$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.31 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 1,883$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.93 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 47c | 1,800$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 1,651$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.88 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 46c | 1,400$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 53c | 1,132$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.44 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 44c | 1,102$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.77 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 52c | 1,004$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.11 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 53c | 997.93$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.07 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under | 51c | 964.2$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.74 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 801.39$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.74 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 58c | 761$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.23 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 42c | 756$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.48 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed Over | 49c | 722.96$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.71 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 52c | 534.68$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.38 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…5896backed Over | 48c | 515$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.8 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 427.02$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.61 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 53c | 350$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.5 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 46c | 327.73$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.98 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 46c | 310.4$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.31 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 60c | 301$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.36 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 51c | 260$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.89 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 63c | 250.69$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.76 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 62c | 215.39$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.85 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8133…3109backed Under | 54c | 180.87$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.67 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 37c | 163$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.31 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Under | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Over | 64c | 129.32$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 44c | 104$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 64c | 103.45$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Over | 43c | 75.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 37c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d5…9622backed Under | 19c | 73.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 43c | 62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 62c | 60.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Under | 34c | 57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 66c | 57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 34c | 57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 65c | 55.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Under | 56c | 53.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 326 | 47.9%156 W · 170 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 43c | 52.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 47.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 62c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 55c | 42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260b…aa9ebacked Over | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d0…8e20backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 321 | 57%183 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 53c | 33.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 51c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…60d0backed Over | 64c | 30.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 42c | 25.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 25.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 63c | 23.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc51…674abacked Over | 63c | 23.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Over | 64c | 23.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-6.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-7.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-8.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 12.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 13.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 14.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.