TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Baltimore Oriolesof Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,183
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,183

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,183 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cf…2f63backed Tampa Bay Rays32c31,122$10,043 inLost-$10,043.154,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles68c19,665$13,396 inWon+$6,269.2111,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Baltimore Orioles66c4,601$3,036 inWon+$1,564.21,30150.2%653 W · 648 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9e7…0febbacked Baltimore Orioles68c1,917$1,304 inWon+$613.597851.3%40 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Baltimore Orioles67c1,000$670 inWon+$3301,84550.7%936 W · 909 L-4.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Baltimore Orioles68c1,000$680 inWon+$3205,47150.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L+21.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Baltimore Orioles68c834.54$567 inWon+$267.052,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles67c825$556 inWon+$269.258,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles69c800$548 inWon+$2526,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Tampa Bay Rays29c197$57 inLost-$57.131,93941.2%799 W · 1,140 L-30.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Baltimore Orioles71c188.74$134 inWon+$54.732,09351.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L+44.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Baltimore Orioles68c183.01$124 inWon+$58.5689053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles68c149.2$101 inWon+$47.7612,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa69d…228ebacked Tampa Bay Rays32c137.56$44 inLost-$44.0219435.6%69 W · 125 L-7.8wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Baltimore Orioles67c111.94$75 inWon+$36.9439948.1%192 W · 207 L-1.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles79c60$47 inWon+$12.65,14954.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L+231.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Baltimore Orioles67c50$34 inWon+$16.516846.4%78 W · 90 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d19…a694backed Tampa Bay Rays32c45.45$15 inLost-$14.5410735.5%38 W · 69 L-7.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Tampa Bay Rays29c37$11 inLost-$10.731,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Baltimore Orioles80c25.06$20 inWon+$5.015,81243.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L-188.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff29…f008backed Baltimore Orioles68c25$17 inWon+$811949.6%59 W · 60 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-9.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e32…0502backed Baltimore Orioles69c21.74$15 inWon+$6.74955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Baltimore Orioles68c20$14 inWon+$6.41,44550.3%727 W · 718 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.