MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcea51353b3459feac0fb6eed593ca28f1cf9af30af803d4c6806907ae4e25ff1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd38a…8d26backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 17,406$7,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,440.82 | 176 | 52.8%93 W · 83 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 6,069$3,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,609.73 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 4,337$2,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,852.17 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 3,901$1,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,602.64 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 3,000$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 2,506$1,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.53 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 2,005$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.84 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 2,000$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 1,983$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.77 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Tampa Bay Rays | 32c | 1,400$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.6 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 1,098$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.14 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 1,063$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.25 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 1,011$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.84 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 879.55$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.39 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 875$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Tampa Bay Rays | 28c | 815.42$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.4 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 608.58$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.43 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 537.12$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.22 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 437.93$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.01 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 400$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 354.5$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.1 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 346.5$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.53 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 78c | 286.81$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 271.48$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.14 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 264.63$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.15 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.21 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 240$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d1…8d0ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 226.99$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.49 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 215.5$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.89 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 41c | 209$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.63 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 179.49$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 155$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 130$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 115.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 111.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cf…91abbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 83.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 71c | 70.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Baltimore Orioles | 69c | 63.66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 32c | 53.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 44.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 34.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…fc78backed Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 31.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 42c | 31.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 28.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 23.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 21.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 21.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 20.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 19.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-6.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-7.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-8.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 12.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 13.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 14.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.