MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2a200143740b2c4e1c59271fef9991438da5b272865f54cc5bf4d381e710b09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 57c | 5,281$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,280.88 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 43c | 4,665$2,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,005.54 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 58c | 3,159$1,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.14 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 42c | 2,164$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.41 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed Under | 53c | 1,579$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 21c | 1,073$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.43 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 52c | 989.86$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.79 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 68c | 845$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.94 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 44c | 824.79$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.71 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 57c | 673$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.44 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 39c | 546.36$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.88 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 57c | 463.23$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.19 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 56c | 392.71$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.79 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd764…ae83backed Under | 24c | 370$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 39c | 355.71$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.66 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 59c | 291.74$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.95 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 56c | 277$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.82 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…c435backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 57c | 173.21$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b75…7c94backed Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 42c | 129.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 61c | 121.46$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 38c | 115.88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.85 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 43c | 112.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba0…1803backed Over | 57c | 104.12$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Under | 48c | 102.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 44c | 102.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.48 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 57c | 101.05$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…e8ccbacked Over | 70c | 98.57$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 25c | 91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Over | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 48c | 75.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 58c | 64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 61c | 55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 34c | 47.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 38c | 47.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 50c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 38c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 66c | 40.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 38.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 45c | 37.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ded…3350backed Under | 39c | 36.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 46c | 32.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 47c | 30.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 41c | 28.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Under | 47c | 27.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc51…674abacked Over | 60c | 27.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…5710backed Over | 56c | 26.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Over | 56c | 26.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 42c | 24.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 57c | 23.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26a8…8a98backed Over | 58c | 21.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 61c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x932d…8529backed Over | 65c | 17.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19a4…a65bbacked Over | 65c | 16.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-6.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-7.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-8.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 12.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 13.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 14.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.