TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-8.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,450
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,442

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,450 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe401…7b88backed Tampa Bay Rays22c950.42$205 inLost-$204.859,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Baltimore Orioles71c597.49$427 inWon+$170.571,21855.6%677 W · 541 L+94.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Baltimore Orioles69c593.16$410 inWon+$183.383,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Tampa Bay Rays57c399.63$226 inLost-$226.462,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles43c391.8$170 inWon+$221.928,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Tampa Bay Rays54c318.71$172 inLost-$172.112,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Tampa Bay Rays64c312.09$200 inLost-$199.742,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Baltimore Orioles36c310$112 inWon+$198.457046.8%267 W · 303 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc45a…1565backed Baltimore Orioles42c139.52$59 inWon+$80.929851%50 W · 48 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Tampa Bay Rays58c82.52$48 inLost-$47.866,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed Baltimore Orioles62c80.64$50 inWon+$30.6511648.3%56 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed Baltimore Orioles70c18.6$13 inWon+$5.5430048%144 W · 156 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.