MLB · resolved market
Yankees vs. Guardians - Game 2
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x840b0986741a7c96b46febc90165411fb31930d3a5f9c11a64fd9fe929a6580e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yankeesof Yankees, Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yankees | 79c | 3,161$2,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.25 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Guardians | 26c | 1,955$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.95 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Yankees | 60c | 1,800$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Guardians | 32c | 1,504$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9c…d5c5backed Guardians | 40c | 1,245$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd04a…824ebacked Guardians | 32c | 1,199$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.55 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked Guardians | 37c | 1,169$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.52 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a4…229ebacked Guardians | 39c | 1,109$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x527c…5f6cbacked Yankees | 60c | 1,109$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2240…115ebacked Yankees | 62c | 1,001$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef8…95d7backed Guardians | 38c | 1,001$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x479c…bcbcbacked Yankees | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb713…2a5dbacked Guardians | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eba…32d4backed Yankees | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yankees | 63c | 1,000$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.13 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…a6abbacked Guardians | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefc1…47b0backed Guardians | 39c | 984$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…03f8backed Yankees | 61c | 984$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yankees | 73c | 861.56$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.53 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb626…e748backed Yankees | 60c | 837.19$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.88 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Guardians | 38c | 669.95$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.58 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9b…1f9bbacked Yankees | 62c | 638.55$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…2193backed Guardians | 39c | 600$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Guardians | 14c | 550$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked Guardians | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x487f…30babacked Yankees | 61c | 490$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf64…7e54backed Guardians | 39c | 490$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57fa…51c4backed Yankees | 62c | 405.22$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.22 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Yankees | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 133 | 54.9%73 W · 60 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…fcfbbacked Yankees | 62c | 247.75$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.15 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b9…cf5ebacked Guardians | 41c | 245.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3462…d3d2backed Yankees | 62c | 241.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…c5b2backed Guardians | 40c | 238.31$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yankees | 59c | 233.87$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.89 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yankees | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yankees | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Guardians | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Guardians | 39c | 199.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde93…bef4backed Yankees | 62c | 198.39$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x892a…89d8backed Guardians | 40c | 190$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d6…8d72backed Yankees | 62c | 179.03$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Yankees | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5be…8728backed Yankees | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0355…4c8cbacked Yankees | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4711…61b3backed Yankees | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e5…316dbacked Guardians | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cec…1e3dbacked Yankees | 75c | 112.26$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…6c83backed Guardians | 25c | 106.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed Yankees | 62c | 101.33$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 188 | 52.7%99 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Guardians | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Guardians | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Yankees | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…928fbacked Guardians | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Yankees | 62c | 82.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161d…6492backed Yankees | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…9311backed Guardians | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…fea8backed Yankees | 62c | 65.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3959…a574backed Yankees | 61c | 61.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked Guardians | 39c | 58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5c…1f98backed Guardians | 39c | 51.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x377f…9e02backed Guardians | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b96…f366backed Yankees | 63c | 43.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x096e…8a38backed Guardians | 40c | 43.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Yankees | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d80…ee8ebacked Guardians | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Guardians | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…93c4backed Yankees | 62c | 34.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90a2…cd8abacked Guardians | 40c | 34.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb1…b2c2backed Guardians | 40c | 32.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2206…943dbacked Yankees | 63c | 32.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6171…cfbcbacked Yankees | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked Yankees | 61c | 27.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e6…ec7ebacked Yankees | 62c | 25.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…636abacked Guardians | 41c | 24.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8e…70d6backed Yankees | 62c | 21.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4531…b339backed Yankees | 63c | 20.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…1d4dbacked Yankees | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bde…67a8backed Yankees | 63c | 17.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Yankees vs. Guardians - Game 2this page
- Will the Yankees and Guardians combine for 7 or more runs?Over won
- Will there be at least 1 run scored in the first inning?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.