NBA · resolved market
Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 26.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x842bc8ca18f96b8d07ae46c23b8b49c71d20fc67af2c299cfa9938d83df1c26d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Yes | 50c | 3,480$1,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,739.81 | 197 | 47.7%94 W · 103 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed No | 50c | 732$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed No | 50c | 512.5$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.25 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…b90ebacked No | 50c | 490.15$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked No | 50c | 416$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed No | 50c | 390.61$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed No | 50c | 358$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 48c | 205$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 161 | 39.8%64 W · 97 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…c9e4backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 521 | 46.6%243 W · 278 L | -14.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58dc…59e4backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 48c | 192.5$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.01 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1006…e0e0backed Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…6d6bbacked No | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48e…1e01backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 434 | 47.5%206 W · 228 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 183 | 39.3%72 W · 111 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed No | 45c | 94.11$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Yes | 54c | 91.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 395 | 52.2%206 W · 189 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked No | 51c | 78.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd711…749cbacked Yes | 52c | 62.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 49c | 61.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1a…7ddebacked Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 400 | 48.3%193 W · 207 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3167…f43cbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd04f…0759backed Yes | 53c | 39.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed No | 49c | 31.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 1,084 | 42.4%460 W · 624 L | -48.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 48c | 30.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked No | 50c | 20.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…795abacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf804…8758backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 26.5this page
- Bruce Brown: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Christian Braun: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Kawhi Leonard: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 12.5Yes won
- Nuggets vs. ClippersClippers won
- Nuggets vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Clippers: O/U 224.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Clippers: O/U 225.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Clippers won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Clippers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.