NBA · resolved market

Spread: Pistons (-4.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x843d5c13f00fee0f8cd38152615c56f2566365ba4639c15f0d714edde0d29d3e

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Pistonsof Pistons, Trail Blazers
Resolved: Dec 23, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $7,880
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $9,701

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,880 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Pistons	57c	1,747$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$747.13	218	52.8%115 W · 103 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers	43c	1,548$662 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$662.3	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers	42c	1,099$466 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$466.41	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa25…05e8backed Pistons	56c	1,072$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$471.8	63	52.4%33 W · 30 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Trail Blazers	44c	400$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Trail Blazers	44c	200$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	83	55.4%46 W · 37 L	+4.8wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa521…4599backed Trail Blazers	44c	172$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.68	75	57.3%43 W · 32 L	+6.7wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Trail Blazers	43c	167.47$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.01	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Pistons	60c	166.48$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.48	235	46.8%110 W · 125 L	-18.7wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x309d…3a8abacked Trail Blazers	44c	141$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.04	65	41.5%27 W · 38 L	-5.6wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Trail Blazers	44c	135$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.4	506	48%243 W · 263 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Trail Blazers	40c	119.99$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	231	53.2%123 W · 108 L	+6.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Trail Blazers	40c	117.78$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.11	734	45.5%334 W · 400 L	+8.9wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x363a…b79ebacked Trail Blazers	44c	110$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.4	44	29.5%13 W · 31 L	-8.6wins	-0.19per pick	49cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0x5920…3ed2backed Pistons	57c	106$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.58	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.43per pick	57cpaid	+75.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0495…c68fbacked Pistons	57c	100$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43	113	46%52 W · 61 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89ad…5e22backed Trail Blazers	44c	94$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.36	49	49%24 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4669…785ebacked Trail Blazers	44c	81$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.64	47	57.4%27 W · 20 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Trail Blazers	44c	81$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.64	69	53.6%37 W · 32 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6e9…6613backed Pistons	56c	80$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.2	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa5f…3de3backed Trail Blazers	44c	80$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.2	72	47.2%34 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bec…6997backed Trail Blazers	44c	75$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	42	45.2%19 W · 23 L	-2.6wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e32…f244backed Trail Blazers	44c	75$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	41	53.7%22 W · 19 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44b8…a2d7backed Pistons	57c	70.18$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.18	183	47.5%87 W · 96 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6132…7665backed Trail Blazers	44c	65$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.6	36	58.3%21 W · 15 L	+3.0wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe500…4b37backed Pistons	67c	64.21$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.21	197	56.3%111 W · 86 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10f7…26f0backed Trail Blazers	44c	64$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.16	74	51.4%38 W · 36 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x65ea…223fbacked Trail Blazers	44c	63$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.72	84	50%42 W · 42 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb82d…5d1ebacked Trail Blazers	44c	62$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.28	94	46.8%44 W · 50 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec94…931ebacked Trail Blazers	45c	55$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.75	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	+36.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Pistons	56c	53.57$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.57	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00fe…eff7backed Trail Blazers	44c	53$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.32	85	52.9%45 W · 40 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8190…fab5backed Pistons	56c	53$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.32	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.23per pick	44cpaid	+26.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc26c…b613backed Trail Blazers	45c	51$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.95	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Pistons	56c	49.99$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.99	801	46.4%372 W · 429 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x608b…6e88backed Pistons	56c	49$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.56	39	56.4%22 W · 17 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc368…0b4ebacked Trail Blazers	44c	48$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.12	39	48.7%19 W · 20 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9af9…89bcbacked Pistons	56c	48$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.12	35	54.3%19 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb87…88d1backed Trail Blazers	44c	47$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.68	87	52.9%46 W · 41 L	+4.4wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d1a…d0c8backed Pistons	56c	44.64$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.64	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-2.3wins	-0.15per pick	55cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf26c…3443backed Pistons	56c	43$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.92	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-2.9wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x597f…e9cfbacked Pistons	56c	42$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.48	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe11a…d47ebacked Pistons	56c	42$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.48	42	42.9%18 W · 24 L	-3.4wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd411…e342backed Pistons	56c	37$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.28	38	65.8%25 W · 13 L	+5.1wins	+0.13per pick	52cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd104…0c60backed Pistons	56c	36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.84	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8bd…8deabacked Pistons	56c	36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.84	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-4.6wins	-0.13per pick	52cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Trail Blazers	44c	35.71$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.71	334	47.9%160 W · 174 L	-6.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Pistons	56c	35.71$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	610	56.1%342 W · 268 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Pistons	57c	35.09$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.09	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34c…93cebacked Pistons	57c	35.09$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.09	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x079f…db87backed Pistons	64c	33.91$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	20	50%10 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc880…a622backed Trail Blazers	44c	33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.52	74	41.9%31 W · 43 L	-4.5wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfaac…1045backed Pistons	56c	33$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.52	54	48.1%26 W · 28 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xede6…89c4backed Pistons	56c	33$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.52	50	56%28 W · 22 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf572…065abacked Trail Blazers	44c	31$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.64	57	50.9%29 W · 28 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc5d…be79backed Pistons	56c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.2	44	59.1%26 W · 18 L	+3.3wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67bc…4d94backed Pistons	56c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.2	210	51.4%108 W · 102 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8655…0853backed Pistons	56c	29$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.76	36	52.8%19 W · 17 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77ed…53f7backed Pistons	56c	29$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.76	40	57.5%23 W · 17 L	+2.5wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b73…a19dbacked Pistons	56c	29$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.76	28	67.9%19 W · 9 L	+4.7wins	+0.17per pick	51cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x279b…7d84backed Pistons	56c	29$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.76	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb14…d929backed Pistons	56c	29$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.76	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-2.0wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa554…e53dbacked Pistons	56c	28$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.32	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba0f…7ca5backed Pistons	56c	27$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.88	38	50%19 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Trail Blazers	43c	26.14$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.24	762	47.1%359 W · 403 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1313…866abacked Pistons	56c	26$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.44	46	52.2%24 W · 22 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Pistons	57c	25$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.75	854	49.4%422 W · 432 L	+15.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e44…3cefbacked Pistons	56c	25$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11	41	48.8%20 W · 21 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Pistons	56c	24$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.56	46	43.5%20 W · 26 L	-3.9wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e1a…60e5backed Pistons	56c	24$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.56	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe91…4462backed Pistons	56c	24$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.56	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-2.7wins	-0.12per pick	53cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ef9…b5bfbacked Pistons	56c	24$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.56	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-2.6wins	-0.11per pick	50cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa029…c912backed Pistons	56c	24$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.56	39	51.3%20 W · 19 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Trail Blazers	44c	23.63$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15b7…7fd0backed Pistons	56c	22$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.68	38	63.2%24 W · 14 L	+4.3wins	+0.11per pick	52cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb1c1…090dbacked Pistons	56c	22$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.68	20	50%10 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7773…f936backed Pistons	56c	21$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.24	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-5.1wins	-0.30per pick	54cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x95c4…a93bbacked Pistons	56c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.8	46	60.9%28 W · 18 L	+4.5wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+24%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c4f…73a6backed Pistons	56c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.8	39	61.5%24 W · 15 L	+3.4wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4f7…1cddbacked Pistons	57c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.6	67	41.8%28 W · 39 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-10%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x62f0…afe6backed Pistons	56c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.8	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-2.3wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1315…d32ebacked Pistons	56c	19$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.36	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-2.8wins	-0.12per pick	56cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x60ee…f2d4backed Pistons	56c	19$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.36	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5956…e127backed Pistons	56c	19$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.36	43	53.5%23 W · 20 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ec…06aabacked Pistons	56c	18$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.92	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d78…4756backed Pistons	56c	18$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.92	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9fc…c985backed Pistons	56c	18$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.92	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38ee…012fbacked Pistons	56c	18$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.92	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Pistons (-4.5)this page
1H Spread: Pistons (-3.5)Pistons won
Pistons vs. Trail BlazersPistons won
Pistons vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 233.5Under won
Pistons vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 234.5Under won
Pistons vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 235.5Under won
Pistons vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 236.5Under won
Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Pistons won
Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Pistons won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Pistons (-4.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event