NHL · resolved market
Red Wings vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84fb7306234002f4aa5959dff49eff7d54119dd1f1596f704f7e9935edb13405
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Under | 49c | 30,602$14,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,973.82 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Under | 0c | 8,430$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 51c | 8,000$4,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,920 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 51c | 6,150$3,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,013.3 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Over | 51c | 5,174$2,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,535.23 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Over | 54c | 3,333$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,533.18 | 752 | 51.7%389 W · 363 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 46c | 3,185$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,465.1 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…0a15backed Over | 54c | 2,654$1,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220.7 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Over | 51c | 2,353$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.94 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf2…423abacked Over | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Over | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…5b52backed Over | 56c | 1,100$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 53c | 996$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.81 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb67d…3e1bbacked Over | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Over | 54c | 766$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.36 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 747.65$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.81 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…4c6dbacked Under | 50c | 500$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -9.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Over | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 51c | 411.76$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.76 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 43c | 299.98$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.99 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 160 | 56.3%90 W · 70 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 51c | 250$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Over | 55c | 249.99$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.49 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Under | 47c | 213.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Over | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd59a…ac62backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4eb…1028backed Over | 51c | 154.47$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.69 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 45c | 143.39$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.46 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 54c | 55.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 50c | 54.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 224 | 43.3%97 W · 127 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…c934backed Under | 50c | 54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 214 | 54.2%116 W · 98 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 43.1%59 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked Under | 50c | 38.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5abb…061bbacked Over | 51c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 181 | 48.6%88 W · 93 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 44c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…47a4backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 51c | 29.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 45c | 29.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Under | 50c | 27.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 490 | 53.7%263 W · 227 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 49c | 24.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Over | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Red Wings vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5this page
- Red Wings vs. CapitalsRed Wings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.