NFL · resolved market
Will 1 QB, 1 DB, 1 EDGE, 1 OT, and 1 RB, be taken with the first 5 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x852a8957c9fa20a65042cb3570883eb330871cbbbf11a4f536bc9772fb18f365
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes | 59c | 1,481$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.11 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe71d…78cebacked No | 50c | 351.98$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.03 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0b…5df6backed Yes | 63c | 267.81$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.63 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 54cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…84e6backed No | 39c | 230$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.39 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 41c | 180$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b06…1dadbacked Yes | 65c | 112.95$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked No | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 56c | 72.22$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 36c | 54.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed No | 38c | 50.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 199 | 48.2%96 W · 103 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5d…aefabacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 63c | 46.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 38c | 42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c72…1e3abacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69d8…0432backed Yes | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e34…67b0backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1 QB, 1 DB, 1 EDGE, 1 OT, and 1 RB, be taken with the first 5 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft?this page
- Will 1 QB, 1 DB, 1 EDGE, 1 OT, and 1 DT, be taken with the first 5 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft?Yes won
- Will 1 QB, 1 DB, 1 EDGE, 1 OT, and 1 LB, be taken with the first 5 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will 1 QB, 1 DB, 1 EDGE, 1 OT, and 1 WR, be taken with the first 5 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will 1 QB, 1 DB, 1 EDGE, 1 RB, and 1 LB, be taken with the first 5 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will 2 OTs, 1 QB, 1 DB, and 1 EDGE be taken with the first 5 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will 2 QB, 1 DB, 1 EDGE, and 1 OT, be taken with the first 5 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft?No won
- Will the first 5 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft be another combination?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.