MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8557fa052124aec2545ff0642f6984b32d890cab7752909dd620a6222a10295e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 4,444$2,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150.52 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 42c | 1,842$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.49 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 64c | 1,765$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.25 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 58c | 1,199$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.58 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 37c | 1,085$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Over | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 46c | 992.92$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.18 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 905.98$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.17 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 25c | 731$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.25 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 66c | 392$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.72 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 66c | 384.7$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.87 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 38c | 366.8$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.38 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 43c | 358.89$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.53 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 47c | 348.43$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.76 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 62c | 325.28$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.61 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 56c | 286.49$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.02 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a24…a0fdbacked Under | 55c | 249.99$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.49 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 57c | 248.12$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.51 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 43c | 199.26$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 75c | 197.6$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.2 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 34c | 181.75$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 39c | 112.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 54c | 107.96$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 42c | 72.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 34c | 57.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 49c | 50.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 54c | 49.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 42c | 41.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 53c | 41.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb208…e0b2backed Over | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed Over | 58c | 39.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 111 | 55.9%62 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 40c | 36.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 64c | 35.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ded…3350backed Over | 47c | 33.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 62c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Under | 66c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacba…40a1backed Under | 68c | 29.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…46bdbacked Under | 47c | 26.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d5…9622backed Over | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.