South American Leagues · resolved market
Grêmio FBPA vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85c5a5fa3d57f3b39e556279a95457e31b3d61f4bd6e9799f04b7f83343dd96b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 12c | 1,724$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.36 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 23c | 1,334$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.58 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9709…52abbacked Under | 15c | 1,000$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa9…09fabacked Under | 16c | 960.19$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.22 | 106 | 35.8%38 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 14c | 832.97$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.51 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 13c | 831.53$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…0dc0backed Under | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 17c | 617.41$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.33 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 15c | 564.71$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 13c | 544$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.31 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 12c | 438.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 14c | 347.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 8c | 321.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 13c | 285.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…142bbacked Under | 19c | 267.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa249…08b6backed Under | 8c | 182.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Under | 12c | 179.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 24c | 146.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…73fabacked Over | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 10c | 141$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…c640backed Over | 70c | 140$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…acd4backed Over | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa425…a8bbbacked Under | 9c | 117.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 74 | 10.8%8 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 13c | 116.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 187 | 42.2%79 W · 108 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 14c | 110.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…39c3backed Under | 18c | 98.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 184 | 46.2%85 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Under | 15c | 82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Over | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…e803backed Over | 75c | 72.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +29%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccb9…4718backed Over | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec1e…0d9cbacked Over | 72c | 45.79$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde05…e2d0backed Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 68c | 36.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 0.5this page
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Fluminense FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Fluminense FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Fluminense FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Fluminense FC: Fluminense FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Fluminense FC: Grêmio FBPA O/U 0.5Over won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Fluminense FC: Grêmio FBPA O/U 2.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5)Grêmio FBPA won
- Spread: Fluminense FC (-2.5)Grêmio FBPA won
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)Fluminense FC won
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-2.5)Fluminense FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.