Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85d4975921b33380a15cc9a08411a9285409a6d0ac079c3205d383fb72dc1c62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 54c | 1,805$972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.27 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 30c | 679.04$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.07 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 42c | 313.68$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.71 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 256.3$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.75 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 240.9$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 37c | 211.78$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.84 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 49c | 209$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.37 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 49c | 197.01$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.64 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 51c | 190.3$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Yes | 52c | 189.34$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.49 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked Yes | 56c | 177.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.93 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 70c | 150$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd46…e514backed Yes | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.7wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7d…b3a8backed No | 15c | 142.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 46c | 140$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 43c | 135.24$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.39 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 35c | 125.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.23 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 46c | 124.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.45 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 44c | 115.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 49c | 105.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.98 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 102.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 46c | 102$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d98…b354backed No | 54c | 90$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked No | 27c | 88.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 46c | 84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 46c | 84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…11abbacked Yes | 46c | 78.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 34c | 77.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed No | 25c | 73.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 31c | 73.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.57 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 21c | 57.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 32c | 56.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 46c | 52.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 53c | 48.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 25c | 46.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 36c | 44.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ac…7cfebacked No | 58c | 42.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 64c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 47c | 39.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8baa…d708backed Yes | 47c | 39.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 36.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 41c | 36.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…8be3backed Yes | 57c | 32.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 46c | 26.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…006dbacked No | 43c | 23.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa052…925abacked No | 53c | 22.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 51c | 22.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b88…a191backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 69c | 15.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 7?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.