Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon: Rublev vs. Mannarino
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85e4fa24b5c09ed4e43c50c72940076d367b3d2c2f01ce40e47754d825be8e06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rublev of Rublev , Mannarino
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2360…1c1cbacked Mannarino | 12c | 6,416$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf557…18debacked Rublev | 77c | 4,517$3,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.51 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed Mannarino | 22c | 3,260$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.72 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Rublev | 76c | 1,350$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed Mannarino | 25c | 1,100$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Rublev | 78c | 1,078$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.3 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…a496backed Rublev | 75c | 1,000$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.5 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Mannarino | 22c | 999.97$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.99 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b4…6318backed Mannarino | 16c | 945$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Mannarino | 23c | 867.05$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.42 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Mannarino | 25c | 799.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Mannarino | 23c | 779.68$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.95 | 251 | 34.3%86 W · 165 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa14f…7926backed Rublev | 72c | 636.59$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.61 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Mannarino | 21c | 630$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.42 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7020…fd20backed Rublev | 78c | 592.31$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Rublev | 75c | 522$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Mannarino | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd5…d06bbacked Mannarino | 5c | 495.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Mannarino | 23c | 455.8$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.91 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Rublev | 78c | 411.82$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.6 | 178 | 67.4%120 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Rublev | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mannarino | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbc…a89cbacked Mannarino | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Mannarino | 18c | 399.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.67 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd22c…53e9backed Rublev | 77c | 397.4$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.4 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mannarino | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Mannarino | 34c | 295.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Mannarino | 26c | 212$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rublev | 76c | 206.68$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Mannarino | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Rublev | 76c | 197.97$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Mannarino | 11c | 167$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9839…040ebacked Mannarino | 24c | 167$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…ccb8backed Rublev | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 137 | 62.8%86 W · 51 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cd…bb91backed Rublev | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…9f26backed Mannarino | 25c | 118.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Mannarino | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Mannarino | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Mannarino | 24c | 81.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…9963backed Mannarino | 28c | 77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355a…98a6backed Rublev | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 188 | 39.9%75 W · 113 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Mannarino | 24c | 60.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Rublev | 77c | 58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Rublev | 75c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0455…e25abacked Rublev | 78c | 47.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Rublev | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Mannarino | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c480backed Rublev | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.