Europa Conference League · resolved market
NSÍ Runavík vs. FC Lugano: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85f9eb54ea136e1d70253ada9367546632f9389b1342e83ddd8189bb903c0473
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x122b…ac59backed Under | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 50c | 1,750$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.2 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 38c | 870.48$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.24 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 52c | 316.33$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.21 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 288.3$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.22 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c99…8b23backed Over | 76c | 264.59$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.59 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 42c | 242.72$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.31 | 182 | 52.7%96 W · 86 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 43c | 228$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.94 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 52c | 207.23$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.4 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…e2c5backed Under | 45c | 194$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 43c | 189$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.73 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 50c | 124.26$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.13 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +9.4wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…6c47backed Under | 47c | 120.36$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03c9…d8c1backed Over | 68c | 111.54$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.8wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 47c | 105.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Under | 46c | 105$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 57c | 99.72$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 58c | 98.02$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.85 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 56c | 97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 146 | 41.1%60 W · 86 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 56c | 95.58$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 153 | 52.9%81 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 44c | 86.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.48 | 655 | 35.6%233 W · 422 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 66c | 70.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 57c | 62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 57c | 59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a62…4ab9backed Over | 61c | 59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4862…7762backed Over | 64c | 51.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Over | 44c | 47.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 57c | 44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 64c | 39.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…ecfabacked Over | 32c | 34.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 38c | 34.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Under | 48c | 29.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 83 | 16.9%14 W · 69 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 39c | 28.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Under | 61c | 28.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Under | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NSÍ Runavík vs. FC Lugano: O/U 3.5this page
- NSÍ Runavík vs. FC Lugano: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- NSÍ Runavík vs. FC Lugano: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- NSÍ Runavík vs. FC Lugano: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- NSÍ Runavík vs. FC Lugano: O/U 1.5Over won
- NSÍ Runavík vs. FC Lugano: O/U 2.5Over won
- NSÍ Runavík vs. FC Lugano: O/U 4.5Under won
- NSÍ Runavík vs. FC Lugano: O/U 5.5Under won
- NSÍ Runavík vs. FC Lugano: Team to AdvanceFC Lugano won
- Spread: FC Lugano (-1.5)NSÍ Runavík won
- Spread: NSÍ Runavík (-1.5)FC Lugano won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.