Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: FC Lugano (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13ce12178432a38a5229adef3534294fb79ec958ab55204ab05171177fb58226
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NSÍ Runavíkof FC Lugano, NSÍ Runavík
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked NSÍ Runavík | 51c | 8,882$4,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,378.82 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed FC Lugano | 46c | 3,369$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.91 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked FC Lugano | 49c | 2,180$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.98 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed FC Lugano | 48c | 1,679$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.43 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed FC Lugano | 48c | 1,200$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked NSÍ Runavík | 50c | 1,164$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.42 | 270 | 39.3%106 W · 164 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…5d2ebacked FC Lugano | 48c | 1,052$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked FC Lugano | 49c | 1,001$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.15 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked FC Lugano | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71bf…f6edbacked NSÍ Runavík | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked NSÍ Runavík | 54c | 791.58$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.13 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed FC Lugano | 49c | 743.92$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.55 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed FC Lugano | 48c | 552.04$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.98 | 182 | 52.7%96 W · 86 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed FC Lugano | 49c | 519.98$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.63 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed FC Lugano | 50c | 515.17$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.71 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed FC Lugano | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a1…30d1backed NSÍ Runavík | 69c | 479.41$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.96 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed NSÍ Runavík | 54c | 477.2$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.6 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed FC Lugano | 50c | 333.37$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.03 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked FC Lugano | 50c | 300$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed NSÍ Runavík | 52c | 259.37$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.6 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked NSÍ Runavík | 54c | 226.2$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.08 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed NSÍ Runavík | 54c | 220.71$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.71 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked NSÍ Runavík | 74c | 179.45$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked FC Lugano | 29c | 166$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed NSÍ Runavík | 75c | 134.43$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed NSÍ Runavík | 68c | 131$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2285…2aeabacked NSÍ Runavík | 79c | 124.64$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed NSÍ Runavík | 57c | 105.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed FC Lugano | 48c | 104.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…33dabacked FC Lugano | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed NSÍ Runavík | 50c | 94.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 171 | 53.8%92 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…6a4dbacked FC Lugano | 49c | 90$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…a82abacked NSÍ Runavík | 57c | 88.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…9626backed FC Lugano | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eeb…a72cbacked NSÍ Runavík | 52c | 77.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed NSÍ Runavík | 55c | 76$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked NSÍ Runavík | 53c | 72.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 153 | 52.9%81 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed FC Lugano | 46c | 63.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked NSÍ Runavík | 73c | 60.48$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed FC Lugano | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2458…bd24backed NSÍ Runavík | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7734…017dbacked FC Lugano | 49c | 48.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed FC Lugano | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed FC Lugano | 47c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed FC Lugano | 50c | 38.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 189 | 40.2%76 W · 113 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…1ca6backed NSÍ Runavík | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa187…aa65backed NSÍ Runavík | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed FC Lugano | 45c | 35.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked FC Lugano | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed FC Lugano | 51c | 29.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 180 | 56.7%102 W · 78 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x083c…65f2backed NSÍ Runavík | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6522…3a5abacked NSÍ Runavík | 53c | 22.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed FC Lugano | 46c | 22.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed FC Lugano | 52c | 21.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked FC Lugano | 51c | 19.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Lugano (-1.5)this page
- NSÍ Runavík vs. FC Lugano: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- NSÍ Runavík vs. FC Lugano: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- NSÍ Runavík vs. FC Lugano: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- NSÍ Runavík vs. FC Lugano: O/U 1.5Over won
- NSÍ Runavík vs. FC Lugano: O/U 2.5Over won
- NSÍ Runavík vs. FC Lugano: O/U 3.5Over won
- NSÍ Runavík vs. FC Lugano: O/U 4.5Under won
- NSÍ Runavík vs. FC Lugano: O/U 5.5Under won
- NSÍ Runavík vs. FC Lugano: Team to AdvanceFC Lugano won
- Spread: NSÍ Runavík (-1.5)FC Lugano won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.