Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x860ba7dc65390ed53aea6ecb5559cb5c50b3ec1b5fc86724a9edd3499812f968
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 38c | 1,563$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.68 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 648.3$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 20c | 628.09$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.14 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed No | 10c | 549.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 37c | 478.21$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.58 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 18c | 307.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.85 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 264.26$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.78 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 192.01$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.76 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 15c | 189.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.49 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 183.85$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.7 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 165.71$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.31 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 27c | 149.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.22 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 72c | 113.23$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.87 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 68c | 113.18$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.96 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 110$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 71c | 105.46$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 104.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.78 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 41c | 100.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.05 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 37c | 100.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.79 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 37c | 95.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.33 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 90$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 84.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 15c | 82.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 82.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 71.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 76c | 71.43$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 48c | 68.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked No | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 44c | 59.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 58.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 49c | 57.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 51c | 54.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 27c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 52.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 66c | 51.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43be…d8bebacked No | 73c | 47.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…38b0backed Yes | 27c | 47.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.30per pick | 47cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 74c | 45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 41c | 44.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 44.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 68c | 44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 41c | 42.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 67c | 41.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 33c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 26.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 58c | 26.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 24.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed No | 71c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 68c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 76c | 19.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 18.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 68c | 17.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 15.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C or higher on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.