MLB · resolved market
Padres vs. Yankees
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86184bd245c48d728246f03113aa45059c7e525c48ce864d316949e3750afcf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yankeesof Padres, Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5fb…84b5backed Yankees | 56c | 25,010$14,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,981.73 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Padres | 44c | 11,132$4,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,874.33 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Padres | 44c | 10,000$4,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,400 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Padres | 45c | 3,470$1,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,553.85 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ba…d879backed Yankees | 56c | 2,444$1,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.9 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Padres | 43c | 2,336$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.04 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Padres | 43c | 2,299$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.93 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Padres | 41c | 1,543$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.56 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yankees | 55c | 1,131$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.16 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Yankees | 52c | 1,033$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.87 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yankees | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Padres | 48c | 973.42$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.24 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Padres | 46c | 897.04$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.99 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Padres | 43c | 871.47$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.73 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Padres | 45c | 721.47$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.66 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed Padres | 56c | 700$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Padres | 48c | 670.59$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Padres | 41c | 515$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.85 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Padres | 60c | 503.97$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Padres | 47c | 350$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.1 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Padres | 44c | 316$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.04 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Yankees | 60c | 293.21$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.82 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Yankees | 51c | 249.98$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.49 | 959 | 50.1%480 W · 479 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Padres | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Padres | 45c | 225$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Padres | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Padres | 47c | 211.16$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Padres | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Padres | 49c | 192.59$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.37 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…f8a6backed Padres | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Yankees | 48c | 192.31$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Yankees | 51c | 188.24$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.24 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Padres | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Padres | 46c | 143$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.78 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Yankees | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Padres | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Padres | 46c | 107.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Padres | 49c | 102.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Yankees | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Yankees | 54c | 84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Yankees | 56c | 75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 172 | 39.5%68 W · 104 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Padres | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…1eedbacked Padres | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Yankees | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yankees | 51c | 43.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…ac06backed Padres | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Padres | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Padres | 47c | 30.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…fec6backed Padres | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Yankees | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Yankees | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Padres | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1,055 | 50.3%531 W · 524 L | -10.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Yankees | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.