TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group B

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Power Rangersof Power Rangers, L1ga Team
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$153,975
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$153,903

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,975 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2146…d41bbacked L1ga Team42c11,497$4,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,831.1289741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3719…2df0backed Power Rangers64c8,264$5,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,001.239055.6%50 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Power Rangers54c7,958$4,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,643.4445750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked L1ga Team33c7,683$2,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,540.521,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Power Rangers67c7,104$4,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,378.691,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed Power Rangers63c6,334$4,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,328.4951049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Power Rangers52c5,385$2,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,589.4247046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Power Rangers42c5,092$2,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,947.3561745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…92fbbacked L1ga Team33c4,662$1,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,535.6627143.5%118 W · 153 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked L1ga Team64c3,931$2,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,526.9780256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x085e…9aeabacked L1ga Team55c3,669$2,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0269650%48 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b90…f361backed Power Rangers53c3,637$1,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,693.254045%18 W · 22 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-17.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Power Rangers42c3,635$1,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,111.9996645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked L1ga Team35c3,469$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.061,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed L1ga Team28c3,199$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.2671454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8681…ef99backed Power Rangers51c2,500$1,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,229.996746.3%31 W · 36 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Power Rangers46c2,190$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,191.0444645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed L1ga Team70c2,187$1,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,525.931,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd1b…e3b3backed Power Rangers35c2,086$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,365.019754.6%53 W · 44 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed L1ga Team39c2,035$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.5196557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8d75backed L1ga Team32c1,863$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.2424251.7%125 W · 117 L+21.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed L1ga Team60c1,818$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098.5355147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Power Rangers60c1,654$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.4723342.9%100 W · 133 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed L1ga Team49c1,538$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.869946.5%46 W · 53 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Power Rangers45c1,373$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.621,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfee…ed1fbacked Power Rangers47c1,273$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.9410618.9%20 W · 86 L-14.0wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-52%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked L1ga Team42c1,250$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52560646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed L1ga Team34c1,226$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.2630647.4%145 W · 161 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed Power Rangers54c1,090$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.8555457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa042…5539backed Power Rangers80c1,042$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.3117454%94 W · 80 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked L1ga Team55c999.99$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55041055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked L1ga Team66c979.62$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.842145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed L1ga Team59c979.34$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.8956852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed L1ga Team51c953.66$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.3857449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ab2…b321backed L1ga Team55c890$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+27.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xffc4…b347backed Power Rangers52c803.4$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.8629466%194 W · 100 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60e3…57b5backed L1ga Team64c729.2$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.2934860.1%209 W · 139 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c01…e7d0backed L1ga Team32c714.3$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.5812350.4%62 W · 61 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked L1ga Team12c677.12$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.411,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked L1ga Team46c667.13$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.885740.4%23 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3322…7dc2backed L1ga Team61c658.77$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.918148.1%39 W · 42 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c6a…189bbacked Power Rangers24c640.24$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.584445.5%20 W · 24 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Power Rangers57c603.19$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.372,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8df…4b48backed L1ga Team49c588.11$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.171154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc84f…c9ecbacked L1ga Team52c560.83$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.351764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a7a…6c9abacked L1ga Team11c532.35$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8317644.9%79 W · 97 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-10.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb691…b39dbacked L1ga Team15c516.73$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.983959%23 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Power Rangers40c503.31$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.8677256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed L1ga Team55c500.1$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.0619643.9%86 W · 110 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked L1ga Team49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24556243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked Power Rangers34c470.35$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.170052.3%366 W · 334 L+47.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked L1ga Team17c469.51$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8226956.1%151 W · 118 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Power Rangers75c462.57$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.2467043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbf7…0e79backed L1ga Team49c453.75$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.451747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked L1ga Team64c429.88$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.3861456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a9f…38a2backed Power Rangers70c421.63$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.062356.5%13 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked L1ga Team49c413.96$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.8416243.2%70 W · 92 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked L1ga Team47c387.83$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.0191356.1%512 W · 401 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked L1ga Team17c380.07$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4492056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed L1ga Team17c380.01$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5656548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Power Rangers38c375.49$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.8186659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11ea…594fbacked L1ga Team49c352.15$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.9715942.8%68 W · 91 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaee…8559backed Power Rangers44c342.11$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.5818356.8%104 W · 79 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93af…32abbacked L1ga Team64c326.59$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.9510751.4%55 W · 52 L+0.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa033…4938backed L1ga Team49c312.15$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.952737%10 W · 17 L-3.7wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x31fd…e144backed L1ga Team47c310.11$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.7513145%59 W · 72 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed L1ga Team48c300$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.57541.3%31 W · 44 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x021a…d3aebacked L1ga Team49c295.98$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.0314641.8%61 W · 85 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e0b…4dd5backed Power Rangers36c295.28$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.988641.9%36 W · 50 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-18.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed L1ga Team49c293.59$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.8610961.5%67 W · 42 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed L1ga Team51c286.64$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.5717443.7%76 W · 98 L-11.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked L1ga Team49c286.47$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.3713850%69 W · 69 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked L1ga Team57c257.72$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.129240.4%118 W · 174 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed Power Rangers59c249.76$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10336138.2%138 W · 223 L-20.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed L1ga Team12c236.81$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4457654.5%314 W · 262 L+29.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86bc…efbcbacked L1ga Team63c226.98$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.3423555.7%131 W · 104 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d95…ed84backed Power Rangers33c219.01$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Power Rangers51c209.35$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.587657.9%44 W · 32 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf67d…c986backed L1ga Team49c199.7$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.8539042.1%164 W · 226 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ef…813bbacked L1ga Team44c199.62$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.153630.6%11 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x070a…e2afbacked L1ga Team49c197.32$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Power Rangers53c195.44$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.421,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed L1ga Team55c192.7$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.0672154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d8…9ccdbacked L1ga Team38c186.8$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.26450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5051…82a6backed Power Rangers52c186.77$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.6520452.5%107 W · 97 L+12.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Power Rangers49c173.35$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.5637223.1%86 W · 286 L-38.2wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed L1ga Team34c173.09$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.131,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x4912…b76fbacked L1ga Team49c172.27$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.413141.9%13 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed L1ga Team59c161.61$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9925935.5%92 W · 167 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5867…2e20backed L1ga Team62c158.83$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6925339.1%99 W · 154 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Power Rangers51c150$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.255550.9%28 W · 27 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked L1ga Team47c136.76$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2823653%125 W · 111 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked L1ga Team73c134.48$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3921650.9%110 W · 106 L-25.3wins-0.12per pick63cpaid-21.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed L1ga Team45c132.93$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2965625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc623…9c7dbacked L1ga Team75c131.33$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.536761%224 W · 143 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11ff…4447backed Power Rangers40c122.96$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9322534.2%77 W · 148 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed L1ga Team50c121.25$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.634436.4%16 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xce1d…fb97backed Power Rangers27c119.59$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.421241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+53.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x312a…66b8backed L1ga Team56c110.31$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5410753.3%57 W · 50 L+8.3wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x87ed…b497backed Power Rangers50c110$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5522752.9%120 W · 107 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.