MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x865da62a567055cac804ec39a1908eb7524e2b96f16259786decc4bc4d1bd3c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c18…799cbacked Yes | 45c | 5,290$2,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,380.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd745…0f10backed No | 55c | 1,751$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa665…b742backed No | 55c | 1,703$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0063…6d70backed No | 55c | 1,693$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 44c | 577.24$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.24 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…41dabacked Yes | 60c | 435.47$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.28 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 29c | 298.31$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.29 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 20c | 258.68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed No | 40c | 209.48$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.69 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55a6…eeb0backed No | 79c | 206.23$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked No | 65c | 191.76$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.21 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked No | 54c | 187.21$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.16 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…85e5backed No | 55c | 184.04$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d0…8e20backed No | 55c | 176.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 321 | 57%183 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…6e47backed No | 71c | 138.54$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…1d21backed No | 57c | 130.34$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 340 | 45%153 W · 187 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 50c | 117.35$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.15 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Yes | 46c | 94.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 24c | 71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 28c | 68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Yes | 45c | 56.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed No | 52c | 54.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec8…8f70backed Yes | 48c | 42.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 46c | 40.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0edb…92c3backed No | 55c | 40.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…f8a2backed Yes | 46c | 35.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18c7…7613backed No | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83d…367dbacked Yes | 44c | 34.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed No | 71c | 34.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…a206backed No | 55c | 33.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed No | 40c | 30.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 45c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed No | 55c | 26.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -11.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb882…fcabbacked No | 71c | 24.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…15efbacked No | 72c | 23.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Yes | 78c | 23.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Yes | 45c | 22.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 185 | 53.5%99 W · 86 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankeesthis page
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-7.5)New York Yankees won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.