Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or below on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86675670967f3f376d0f09d86c245eeec29289e26cb585da8b562c25b4f2e870
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 1,022$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.53 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 977.31$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.37 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 63c | 921.02$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.11 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc54…db0ebacked No | 68c | 460$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.26 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 32c | 454.08$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.29 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…1652backed No | 66c | 243.27$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 228.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 31c | 207.59$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 196.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 36c | 183.48$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 176.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 166.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 38c | 164$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 61c | 161.67$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 155.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 21c | 152.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 146$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 46c | 143.51$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.71 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 130.63$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 124.97$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 47c | 119.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 109.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 109.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 98.13$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked Yes | 18c | 87.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 33c | 83.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 33c | 82.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 17c | 74.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 72c | 72.61$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…7aa3backed Yes | 36c | 70.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 19c | 68.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 30c | 66.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 65.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0771…6d8dbacked Yes | 29c | 63.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 68c | 61.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 60c | 60.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7721…e537backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbec…5088backed No | 52c | 57.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d94…c0dfbacked Yes | 18c | 56.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 74c | 55.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd086…7bc1backed Yes | 32c | 53.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 73c | 51.12$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 49.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb907…5dbcbacked No | 62c | 45.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 43.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 30c | 41.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc3…e353backed No | 59c | 41.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 31c | 38.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…c908backed Yes | 28c | 37.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb7…dcfdbacked Yes | 37c | 35.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 73c | 33.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x780d…3e2dbacked No | 63c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 73c | 29.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 75c | 29.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc2…e1d3backed No | 70c | 28.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked No | 60c | 28.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 66c | 27.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x715e…ee36backed Yes | 41c | 27.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 51c | 27.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 61c | 25.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 71c | 21.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 55c | 20.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…463ebacked No | 64c | 19.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 16.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or below on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 29°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.