Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8684f498e7e785becc173b3b19da2a13905b4a497635e47870a1dd643dd457a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 37c | 1,990$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.38 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 69c | 297.06$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.09 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 279.09$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.92 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 259.69$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 242.59$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 214$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.26 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.85 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 17c | 188.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 33c | 184.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 169.47$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 164.12$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.21 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 157$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.47 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 153$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.13 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.59 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 73c | 139.41$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 33c | 138.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 69c | 128.23$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 56c | 119.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 111.35$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 109.4$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 55c | 107.93$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 106.21$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…6c9abacked No | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 48c | 98.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 89.17$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 50c | 89.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 64c | 88.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…3f63backed Yes | 35c | 86.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 46c | 86.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 57c | 82.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 51c | 80.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 22c | 78.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 20c | 72.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 52c | 67.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 65.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 16c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 44c | 64.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 62.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d7…9f0cbacked No | 49c | 58.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 24c | 56.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 55.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 50c | 54.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x125d…baf6backed Yes | 51c | 53.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 49c | 52.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…a380backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 49c | 45.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 30c | 40.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 39c | 40.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 70c | 38.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 79c | 37.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 49c | 36.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 71c | 33.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 71c | 32.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 71c | 31.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b3…c118backed Yes | 51c | 31.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 65cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc85…1631backed No | 51c | 29.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 42c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 50c | 26.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 40c | 25.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 63c | 23.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 53c | 21.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 75c | 21.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 75c | 20.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…9b4ebacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 19.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae3…8262backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.