TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,587
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,769

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,587 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes47c1,606$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.981,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes47c462.85$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.1370741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes47c431.07$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.438,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No53c400$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2122,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No40c387.23$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.314,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes54c302.04$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.047347.9%35 W · 38 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes49c294.41$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.275,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No44c254.47$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.342,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes50c243.29$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.594,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No43c232.81$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.1112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No20c210.35$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.991,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No56c208.18$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.414,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed No10c203.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.351,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No53c196.17$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.993,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked No51c186.64$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9633746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x361c…99d4backed No54c185.42$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1311965.5%78 W · 41 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No47c169.48$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.954,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No45c153$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.475,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No11c152.79$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.071,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes41c151.93$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.0499949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cf2…fcecbacked Yes70c142.65$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.652365.2%15 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick64cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes54c138.33$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.631,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No30c112.8$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.071,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes54c109$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.381,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes47c104.47$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.391,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5475546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.6942643.2%184 W · 242 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc57f…7a32backed Yes52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.15475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+100.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes46c95.95$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.579,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5215…6060backed No51c95$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.991838.9%7 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.20per pick58cpaid-34.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No45c94.44$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.382,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes53c89.53$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.083,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No37c88.53$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5853855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x831a…ad82backed No37c82.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4719648.5%95 W · 101 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes39c80.97$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.779545.3%43 W · 52 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c54…aa45backed No18c80.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.853966.7%26 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes50c77.31$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.311,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No48c76.56$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.751,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No50c76$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6664167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes53c75$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2535137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No48c72.01$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.561,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes52c69.67$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4449551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No48c65.59$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.592,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes48c63.09$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5797152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes43c60.82$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.912,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No52c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.245162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes36c59.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3957747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c59.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4580050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No44c59.91$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.576,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No22c56.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.591,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No53c56.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.055,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes43c48.23$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.711,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes49c45.49$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9980130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No46c44.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes48c42.49$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9454335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes48c41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3246148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe01…b8aebacked No56c40.64$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7626458.7%155 W · 109 L-20.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes74c39.59$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.311,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes52c39.23$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8347136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No54c35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.999571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2af3…bcb4backed No49c34.59$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.814658.7%27 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No58c34.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8258358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes53c34$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.942,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No53c33.32$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.662,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes49c32.62$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.644,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No52c32.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.562,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94ae…d801backed Yes46c32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2813950.4%70 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No46c30.18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7898160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.314,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No48c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.41,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No48c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.43,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No47c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.23,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe01…87d3backed Yes53c29.43$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8330332.3%98 W · 205 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No66c29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1471464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No47c26.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.482,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe35…57c3backed Yes52c25.04$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0210430.8%32 W · 72 L-16.9wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-30.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes72c24.62$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8852446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes50c24.16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9894552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes50c24.07$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.073,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x358b…3722backed Yes51c24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8452533.1%174 W · 351 L+21.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…68d3backed No49c23.76$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.756053.3%32 W · 28 L-5.5wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes52c23.23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.247,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes54c23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.56,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe63a…0679backed No50c22.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.23246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid+22.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No48c21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0894066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7419…594abacked Yes51c20.65$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.27925.3%20 W · 59 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-26.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.228649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9db6…e1f8backed No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.611157.7%64 W · 47 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43fd…59d3backed No52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.415961.6%98 W · 61 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31a4…dd86backed No59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.78564.7%55 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes72c17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7665749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.