TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Team Lynx (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Lynxof Zero Tenacity, Team Lynx
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$47,588
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,404

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,588 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x913c…39b3backed Team Lynx51c6,016$3,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,945.4271454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Zero Tenacity69c4,350$3,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,001.4915457.1%88 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Zero Tenacity57c4,106$2,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3271,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x372f…182abacked Zero Tenacity0c4,014$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.225362.3%33 W · 20 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Team Lynx31c3,676$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,536.3219847%93 W · 105 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x085e…9aeabacked Team Lynx54c2,429$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,128.489650%48 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f30…3aeebacked Zero Tenacity30c1,834$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55514157.4%81 W · 60 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Zero Tenacity39c1,798$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.9254246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Team Lynx49c1,513$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.934761.7%29 W · 18 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Zero Tenacity49c1,385$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.9586659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Zero Tenacity42c1,338$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.977830.8%24 W · 54 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Zero Tenacity50c1,200$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60079859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Zero Tenacity46c1,140$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53012740.2%51 W · 76 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aee…c455backed Zero Tenacity45c1,044$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27ea…863dbacked Zero Tenacity17c1,011$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.493342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed Team Lynx31c833.74$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.4341455.6%230 W · 184 L+41.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0758…9532backed Zero Tenacity42c826.95$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.9118437.5%69 W · 115 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Lynx46c799.65$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.092,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Zero Tenacity47c523.86$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.811,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked Zero Tenacity40c500$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20154058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27fd…9187backed Team Lynx46c451.91$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.172343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x589a…8dc5backed Zero Tenacity52c416.33$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.5520442.2%86 W · 118 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Team Lynx51c360.08$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.1246451.5%239 W · 225 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1c6…2d29backed Zero Tenacity7c353.05$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.154057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked Zero Tenacity43c352.24$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15048053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed Team Lynx53c345.56$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.078448.8%41 W · 43 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1179…8bc2backed Team Lynx39c329.99$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+27.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Team Lynx55c321.69$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.5953139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed Team Lynx47c319.38$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.8210138.6%39 W · 62 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b4c…1715backed Zero Tenacity9c305.16$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1521333.3%71 W · 142 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+64.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked Zero Tenacity43c300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.9229240.4%118 W · 174 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc52…dfcebacked Zero Tenacity52c300$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15614454.2%78 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1de…aadfbacked Team Lynx65c284.97$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.74560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed Team Lynx56c225.13$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.0523459%138 W · 96 L+0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dd4…7401backed Team Lynx42c212.33$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.2435430.5%108 W · 246 L-27.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Zero Tenacity42c211.88$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.0654753.6%293 W · 254 L+22.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Team Lynx66c200$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6836044.2%159 W · 201 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed Zero Tenacity49c200$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9779343.6%346 W · 447 L+38.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb2e…3657backed Zero Tenacity36c199.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Team Lynx50c192.12$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.231,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3989…0539backed Team Lynx71c187.1$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.153360.6%20 W · 13 L+5.4wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+32%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1568…c958backed Zero Tenacity72c183.08$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.417852.8%94 W · 84 L+0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19b6…b7cdbacked Zero Tenacity57c182.22$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.714151.2%21 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed Zero Tenacity57c175.66$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10055457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Team Lynx75c174.13$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0893546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Zero Tenacity49c152.19$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.571,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d9a…91e1backed Team Lynx64c150.33$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.12757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+68.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xddbd…bcb5backed Team Lynx27c148.89$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.8914030.7%43 W · 97 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Team Lynx44c139.4$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.4765337.2%243 W · 410 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb829…4f5ebacked Team Lynx50c136$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.3517636.9%65 W · 111 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f41…547cbacked Team Lynx77c134.83$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0113142.7%56 W · 75 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ae0…8661backed Zero Tenacity37c133.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015940.9%65 W · 94 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Lynx64c131.08$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.381,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34cc…d703backed Zero Tenacity78c128.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100875%6 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked Team Lynx49c124.37$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.8991356.1%512 W · 401 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a2e…e1b2backed Zero Tenacity40c124.3$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6628…05aebacked Team Lynx44c124$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.2215342.5%65 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11ff…4447backed Zero Tenacity25c118.54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3022534.2%77 W · 148 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x741a…ea3ebacked Zero Tenacity50c116$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585448.1%26 W · 28 L-6.6wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-24.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcb70…0854backed Team Lynx71c114.25$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.13837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e34…4480backed Team Lynx47c109.42$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.9917737.9%67 W · 110 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Zero Tenacity52c105.95$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.141,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf655…0813backed Zero Tenacity36c105.56$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386768.7%46 W · 21 L+7.9wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+25.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4cbe…2237backed Zero Tenacity49c102.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504946.9%23 W · 26 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5ae…3e6cbacked Team Lynx66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344450%22 W · 22 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb0f…b652backed Team Lynx35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6522552.4%118 W · 107 L+26.0wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+25.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed Team Lynx66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3430250%151 W · 151 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed Team Lynx66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3416250%81 W · 81 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked Zero Tenacity53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5370052.3%366 W · 334 L+47.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Team Lynx46c99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.4469033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ffb…f7f0backed Zero Tenacity60c98.74$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6551550.9%262 W · 253 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b90…08e7backed Zero Tenacity47c91.41$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9638244.5%170 W · 212 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x953e…79ffbacked Zero Tenacity45c90$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.428050%140 W · 140 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcacf…c5e1backed Team Lynx27c88.95$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.931040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Team Lynx50c88.84$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.481,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x316f…795abacked Team Lynx48c85$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9228336.4%103 W · 180 L+1.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3c5…f095backed Zero Tenacity46c76.02$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3560660.7%368 W · 238 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e25…123cbacked Zero Tenacity32c71$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.561625%4 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0580…f78bbacked Team Lynx34c67$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2213129.8%39 W · 92 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-38.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc88c…c353backed Zero Tenacity28c65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.06825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-45.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b41…2c02backed Team Lynx31c63.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4472637.5%272 W · 454 L+3.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3162…d515backed Team Lynx52c62.55$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0935948.2%173 W · 186 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Zero Tenacity36c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.643738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Zero Tenacity73c54.45$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4015069.3%104 W · 46 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick73cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Team Lynx70c53.77$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3225349.4%125 W · 128 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2342…12d6backed Zero Tenacity56c53.4$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.097757.1%44 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f57…2282backed Zero Tenacity68c51.47$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353063.3%19 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6c3…a6e8backed Zero Tenacity31c49.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.537851.1%193 W · 185 L-1.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc7d…8895backed Zero Tenacity60c48.33$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2928252.5%148 W · 134 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc37d…e586backed Team Lynx58c45.05$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9338759.4%230 W · 157 L+26.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a72…0a38backed Team Lynx66c43$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6220448%98 W · 106 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa163…3ccbbacked Team Lynx66c43$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6215536.1%56 W · 99 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Team Lynx66c43$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6225351.4%130 W · 123 L+23.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf3c8…e340backed Team Lynx34c42$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7224527.3%67 W · 178 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd156…8569backed Zero Tenacity75c40.27$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30540%2 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick68cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked Zero Tenacity47c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6847358.6%277 W · 196 L+25.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a53…71a3backed Zero Tenacity76c39.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3018562.7%116 W · 69 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6c1…d9febacked Zero Tenacity53c37.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.86553.8%35 W · 30 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ce8…75f2backed Zero Tenacity54c37.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012132.2%39 W · 82 L-11.0wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-42.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x56fc…affbbacked Team Lynx56c36.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2325547.8%122 W · 133 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.