Cricket · resolved market
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Guernsey vs Sweden
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86b601a3b428e1a445138356e1b2f1cf091d726f7eeedc0f249afb3dbabb711c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Guernseyof Guernsey, Sweden
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Cricket | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2cd…820fbacked Sweden | 48c | 746$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.52 | 187 | 29.4%55 W · 132 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Sweden | 38c | 730.7$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.71 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Guernsey | 45c | 661.11$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.39 | 569 | 37.1%211 W · 358 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Guernsey | 62c | 645.54$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.01 | 505 | 47.5%240 W · 265 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b2…5047backed Sweden | 43c | 577.59$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Sweden | 44c | 532.46$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.21 | 636 | 46.4%295 W · 341 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Sweden | 44c | 374.53$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.16 | 641 | 43.1%276 W · 365 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Guernsey | 55c | 318.55$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…3206backed Guernsey | 63c | 310.01$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.69 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Sweden | 5c | 287.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 369 | 8.7%32 W · 337 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Guernsey | 49c | 260.19$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.85 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Guernsey | 56c | 241.71$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.04 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…d3b2backed Sweden | 52c | 230.27$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.65 | 175 | 35.4%62 W · 113 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Guernsey | 53c | 213.04$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.75 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb19…e7a3backed Sweden | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 187 | 13.4%25 W · 162 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e6…671abacked Sweden | 34c | 145.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Sweden | 51c | 145$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.05 | 119 | 37.8%45 W · 74 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…5f87backed Sweden | 19c | 130$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…00a5backed Sweden | 43c | 117$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04c6…cda7backed Guernsey | 32c | 101.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.19 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Sweden | 33c | 100.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 176 | 42%74 W · 102 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8e…1d33backed Guernsey | 64c | 96.63$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 270 | 54.4%147 W · 123 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Guernsey | 56c | 96.45$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 419 | 47.5%199 W · 220 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Guernsey | 40c | 83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 654 | 51.1%334 W · 320 L | +26.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7bf…9160backed Guernsey | 57c | 77.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Guernsey | 75c | 76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…643fbacked Sweden | 39c | 63.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 145 | 37.9%55 W · 90 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf64…26f3backed Guernsey | 72c | 60.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Guernsey | 64c | 60.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ef…f1a8backed Sweden | 56c | 56.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffd…74bfbacked Guernsey | 61c | 54.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -53%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Sweden | 42c | 53.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 423 | 44.2%187 W · 236 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…0140backed Sweden | 46c | 53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Sweden | 58c | 51.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 249 | 40.6%101 W · 148 L | -15.6wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Guernsey | 72c | 51.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Sweden | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…923ebacked Sweden | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Guernsey | 54c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7160…dfbdbacked Sweden | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae0…e547backed Guernsey | 64c | 34.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Guernsey | 78c | 24.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 438 | 40.9%179 W · 259 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x031b…517ebacked Sweden | 68c | 22.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.