Earnings · resolved market
Will RealReal (REAL) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87222d8fc500c6cd8278ceb6567e0d325f903372e2f275001fb13619eb17e00a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 21c | 2,669$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.19 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa806…83cabacked No | 29c | 1,068$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.22 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.27per pick | 36cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 70c | 771.2$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.02 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 79c | 512.31$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 499.99$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 180$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 70c | 160$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fed…395abacked No | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 72c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 73c | 111.74$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 26c | 102.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -14.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 79c | 101.48$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…9aeabacked No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 29c | 98.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -10.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 24c | 86.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 72c | 58.92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1153…7331backed Yes | 61c | 57.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 72c | 57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 67c | 56.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 263 | 50.2%132 W · 131 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 72c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb082…5138backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07c…aec5backed No | 40c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 64c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 141 | 71.6%101 W · 40 L | +22.4wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 78c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0085…caa3backed No | 40c | 31.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…67aabacked Yes | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…714abacked No | 40c | 27.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9040…672ebacked Yes | 61c | 26.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed No | 40c | 25.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf36a…0da0backed Yes | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…c35abacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ea…7b04backed Yes | 79c | 13.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.