Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8754a6317903846e323bbf100099721a6ed9cd4df4fc5f56832d2a3e41813062
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 19c | 770.42$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.33 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed Yes | 30c | 537.95$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.93 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 77c | 373.12$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.41 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 32c | 299.95$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.97 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 268.69$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.96 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 257.92$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.69 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 63c | 257.68$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.34 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 37c | 229.09$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.27 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 227.85$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 212.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 32c | 212.51$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 34c | 205.21$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.18 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 46c | 159$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.69 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 158.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 153$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.18 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 69c | 150$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 69c | 150$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.44 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…72d2backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 125.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 11c | 118.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 31c | 103.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.63 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 100.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 64c | 99.28$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 99.18$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 70c | 93$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 34c | 90.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 68c | 85.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 70c | 71.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 66.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 80c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 34c | 61.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 36c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 33c | 59.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 58.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…88d0backed No | 70c | 51.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 69c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 34c | 48.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 68c | 47.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…cd67backed Yes | 33c | 42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 41.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 24c | 41.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 64c | 41.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 40.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 38.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 35.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 68c | 32.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…c6c3backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 29.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 47c | 28.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 45c | 28.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 66c | 25.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 70c | 24.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 63c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed No | 70c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 67c | 22.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 21.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 67c | 21.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…ebe0backed Yes | 80c | 18.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…f207backed No | 73c | 17.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 16.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad1…e9acbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 69c | 14.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 74c | 13.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.