MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x879ec280edadadd12997315b2454f161f3bea4fa7e11191bda41c1f97ddf9c2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca0…9b86backed Seattle Mariners | 23c | 6,522$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 77c | 6,405$4,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,471.92 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 1,254$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.85 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 1,119$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.36 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 760.12$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.05 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 703$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.17 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Seattle Mariners | 36c | 627.62$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.38 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49e…e5e8backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 396.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.83 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 362.83$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.2 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Francisco Giants | 75c | 351.61$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.73 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 325.38$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.5 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Seattle Mariners | 38c | 261.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 250$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Seattle Mariners | 15c | 233$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 175$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked San Francisco Giants | 72c | 172.06$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 150.94$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed San Francisco Giants | 77c | 150.34$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 139.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 130.68$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 129.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 121.12$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 111.44$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 100.26$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 96.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Seattle Mariners | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 195 | 40%78 W · 117 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Seattle Mariners | 22c | 80.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x954e…927fbacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 115 | 55.7%64 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 73.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Seattle Mariners | 23c | 56.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…3a5cbacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 54.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked San Francisco Giants | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 43.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked San Francisco Giants | 77c | 40.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Seattle Mariners | 38c | 36.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked San Francisco Giants | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 32.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed San Francisco Giants | 79c | 18.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.