MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba5045be77ebe2904071d6717fa7191f7f73360eef5c6d1b8bc0fc336d76081e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 58c | 7,832$4,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,533.98 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe821…3128backed Under | 71c | 6,757$4,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,797.25 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 39c | 4,069$1,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,469.19 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd30…6b15backed Under | 4c | 3,356$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +264.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 2,212$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.64 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 59c | 2,021$1,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.61 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 41c | 2,000$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 5c | 817$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c2…dc0bbacked Under | 53c | 755.66$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a9…b216backed Under | 4c | 700$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 5cpaid | +411.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc11…4b4abacked Under | 4c | 700$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +126.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6d…33e2backed Under | 4c | 700$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 5cpaid | +259.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 60c | 695.57$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.23 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 60c | 695.57$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.23 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 47c | 596.13$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.65 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 559.6$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.34 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 42c | 524.96$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.81 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 59c | 480.49$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 57c | 471.72$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.84 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ff…b842backed Under | 49c | 380.62$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 41c | 364.97$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.88 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 56c | 325.99$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.75 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 50c | 285$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.5 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d5…e1debacked Under | 71c | 283.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 53c | 283$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.01 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 42c | 254.49$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.89 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 253.56$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.36 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 47c | 250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 42c | 214.77$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.22 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 42c | 193.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.78 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 41c | 149.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 29c | 149.74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.31 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 47c | 146.79$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 47c | 140$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Under | 42c | 135.16$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 43c | 125$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e69…30a0backed Under | 43c | 116$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under | 34c | 95.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 42c | 90.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 41c | 72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 40c | 71.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed Over | 47c | 58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 47c | 49.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 44c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d74…96b8backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 71c | 35.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4beb…e747backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Under | 55c | 32.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 66c | 30.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 71c | 27.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 44c | 23.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 60c | 22.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.