MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfc1f1af5020e8aae4c2f8e1f2d37fddda9fc9ac7c6f343a8e479d8916656d28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 59c | 4,757$2,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,930.08 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 41c | 4,660$1,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,910.48 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 42c | 2,044$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.94 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed No | 59c | 1,704$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.83 | 233 | 57.9%135 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…336dbacked Yes | 41c | 1,245$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.45 | 449 | 45.4%204 W · 245 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.07 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Yes | 41c | 856.99$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.12 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed No | 55c | 680.54$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.05 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 59c | 677.97$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.97 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked No | 59c | 510$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.1 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 42c | 469.19$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.06 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed No | 59c | 430$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.3 | 204 | 55.9%114 W · 90 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 41c | 353.26$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.38 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed No | 61c | 328.77$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.77 | 117 | 43.6%51 W · 66 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 41c | 321.05$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.63 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 53c | 222$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.34 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 41c | 212.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…4e8dbacked Yes | 41c | 182$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.62 | 283 | 47.3%134 W · 149 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 41c | 177.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.67 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 58c | 174.96$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.48 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07aa…63bfbacked No | 62c | 161.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 193 | 58%112 W · 81 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa422…d210backed No | 59c | 135.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9d34backed No | 59c | 117.35$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.11 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed No | 56c | 105.49$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.42 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,803 | 53.8%970 W · 833 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…38bfbacked Yes | 41c | 85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…b524backed No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Yes | 41c | 75.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02e0…3741backed Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Yes | 42c | 72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 1,299 | 50.9%661 W · 638 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…2f7ebacked No | 56c | 62.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked Yes | 41c | 58.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 278 | 52.2%145 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 66c | 58.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Yes | 42c | 57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked No | 57c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c19…60c1backed No | 61c | 42.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Yes | 42c | 41.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 375 | 46.9%176 W · 199 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe733…f6c9backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 370 | 48.9%181 W · 189 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7884…1fb0backed No | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbf…c53cbacked Yes | 41c | 34.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d74…96b8backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…d888backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 624 | 54.2%338 W · 286 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 58c | 24.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked No | 57c | 23.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…0b7ebacked Yes | 66c | 22.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 69cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Marinersthis page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.