TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: TEC Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Group Omega

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bilibili Gamingof TEC Esports, Bilibili Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$181,069
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$222,537

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,069 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 238 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeac2…dddcbacked Bilibili Gaming60c24,091$14,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,529.8812652.4%66 W · 60 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed TEC Esports49c23,427$11,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,391.0424145.2%109 W · 132 L-11.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed TEC Esports35c3,500$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.9619860.6%120 W · 78 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2276…efd0backed Bilibili Gaming60c3,440$2,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3763177.4%24 W · 7 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick61cpaid+27.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Bilibili Gaming63c3,219$2,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,182.7739646%182 W · 214 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Bilibili Gaming70c3,202$2,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.1552050%260 W · 260 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed TEC Esports37c2,952$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.8746326.6%123 W · 340 L-26.0wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Bilibili Gaming67c2,776$1,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.3455348.3%267 W · 286 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed TEC Esports29c2,204$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.132245.7%147 W · 175 L+52.2wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+40.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xd1a8…6427backed Bilibili Gaming66c2,148$1,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.6410566.7%70 W · 35 L+10.0wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+9.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked TEC Esports31c2,148$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.135438.9%21 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed Bilibili Gaming63c2,125$1,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.555459.3%32 W · 22 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+26.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a86…8444backed TEC Esports32c2,008$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+217.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x257e…ca61backed TEC Esports24c1,918$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.1722344.4%99 W · 124 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed TEC Esports33c1,795$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.0639042.6%166 W · 224 L+19.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked TEC Esports54c1,751$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9452737%10 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-34.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd07…cb4ebacked Bilibili Gaming67c1,700$1,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5543154.8%17 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4264…1169backed Bilibili Gaming57c1,560$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.641060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd76b…e9d5backed Bilibili Gaming65c1,538$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.461435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-40.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x953b…f747backed Bilibili Gaming69c1,459$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.013450%17 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked TEC Esports22c1,432$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.791,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked TEC Esports35c1,146$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40029733.3%99 W · 198 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Bilibili Gaming78c1,108$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.9779650%398 W · 398 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed TEC Esports27c999.99$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.522449.1%110 W · 114 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked TEC Esports34c987.01$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.781,35839%530 W · 828 L-57.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6277backed TEC Esports43c810$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.74557.8%26 W · 19 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xff95…859cbacked Bilibili Gaming64c802.65$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.0312056.7%68 W · 52 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked TEC Esports33c782.95$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.7928743.2%124 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51b6…1903backed Bilibili Gaming65c780.71$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.4626354.4%143 W · 120 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed TEC Esports41c761.08$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31014941.6%62 W · 87 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a96…7a34backed TEC Esports39c757.8$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.543447.1%16 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+57.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Bilibili Gaming65c708.6$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.016048.3%29 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed TEC Esports36c646.91$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.5841734.8%145 W · 272 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed TEC Esports36c599.25$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.0274642.8%319 W · 427 L-27.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked TEC Esports40c573.89$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.561,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9a4…8427backed Bilibili Gaming65c556.92$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.922240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3006…780fbacked Bilibili Gaming64c553.01$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.092347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Bilibili Gaming57c546.56$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.1644342%186 W · 257 L-22.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed TEC Esports2c532.7$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.024932.7%16 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6c6…933abacked Bilibili Gaming62c519.35$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.3512856.3%72 W · 56 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Bilibili Gaming65c500.1$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.0325453.5%136 W · 118 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked Bilibili Gaming62c500$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19030652.3%160 W · 146 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked TEC Esports35c499.99$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17586747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked TEC Esports18c483.4$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.4920138.3%77 W · 124 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked TEC Esports36c470.05$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.0221136.5%77 W · 134 L-15.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-38.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed TEC Esports29c467.76$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.3916144.7%72 W · 89 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked TEC Esports50c464.9$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.71,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Bilibili Gaming65c461.54$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.5434857.5%200 W · 148 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked TEC Esports17c461.42$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9735142.5%149 W · 202 L-14.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Bilibili Gaming78c446.3$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.323463.7%149 W · 85 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec7f…ab9ebacked TEC Esports40c441.55$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.042556%14 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked TEC Esports33c435.4$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.3788844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked TEC Esports40c428.4$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17025336.4%92 W · 161 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e90…be2bbacked Bilibili Gaming62c425.85$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Bilibili Gaming74c392.93$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.1954342.4%230 W · 313 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Bilibili Gaming59c371.17$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.1846347.1%218 W · 245 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed TEC Esports30c364.67$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.1749255.3%272 W · 220 L+23.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Bilibili Gaming65c360.79$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.287655.3%42 W · 34 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc290…2e06backed TEC Esports16c352.58$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.355414.8%8 W · 46 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc732…adefbacked Bilibili Gaming61c340$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1341586.7%13 W · 2 L+4.1wins+0.27per pick59cpaid+38.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb55b…c5b4backed Bilibili Gaming60c335$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1345858.6%34 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9291…63d0backed Bilibili Gaming61c324.88$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.875076%38 W · 12 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick68cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce3f…e1e1backed Bilibili Gaming77c315.07$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.66666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed TEC Esports31c314.59$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4926932.3%87 W · 182 L-25.7wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-42.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd991…c161backed Bilibili Gaming65c307.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.692166.7%14 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2133…7903backed Bilibili Gaming65c307$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.4514252.8%75 W · 67 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf679…2d3dbacked Bilibili Gaming63c283.3$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.186647%31 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fca…6ac3backed TEC Esports41c283$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.99540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked TEC Esports34c274.77$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3930835.4%109 W · 199 L-23.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-40.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc5c…5ac0backed Bilibili Gaming73c274.66$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked TEC Esports32c273.92$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.6457151%291 W · 280 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bd…89bcbacked Bilibili Gaming65c271.24$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed TEC Esports33c259.33$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.8733838.5%130 W · 208 L-21.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x955d…1ec5backed TEC Esports17c258$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.86450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a96…3087backed TEC Esports39c254$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006552.3%34 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed Bilibili Gaming65c250$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.532152.6%169 W · 152 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c4c…9f95backed Bilibili Gaming45c250$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.51442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33d3…bf38backed Bilibili Gaming62c238.82$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.814247.6%20 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Bilibili Gaming64c233.43$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.181,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed TEC Esports13c227$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4166438.1%253 W · 411 L-31.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1cc…3bf0backed Bilibili Gaming64c226.08$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.3912755.9%71 W · 56 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed TEC Esports41c225.91$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.391,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ea9…9248backed Bilibili Gaming67c223.88$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.8811159.5%66 W · 45 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x040d…417abacked Bilibili Gaming59c223.73$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.732171.4%15 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x026b…8804backed Bilibili Gaming54c213.47$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.8715358.8%90 W · 63 L+14.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8c8b…7a07backed Bilibili Gaming47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7710664.2%68 W · 38 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+16%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa597…79d7backed TEC Esports48c210.52$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.958852.3%46 W · 42 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5747…7fdfbacked TEC Esports34c209.62$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7562856.4%354 W · 274 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb758…dd73backed TEC Esports34c202.55$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.8625347%119 W · 134 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453b…db4abacked Bilibili Gaming67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe3bb…e26bbacked TEC Esports33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663652.8%19 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c44…5d15backed TEC Esports33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee21…083cbacked Bilibili Gaming67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663650%18 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x548e…9d41backed Bilibili Gaming67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b95…04bbbacked TEC Esports33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663650%18 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8429…694cbacked Bilibili Gaming67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663857.9%22 W · 16 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+22.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x551d…e8b6backed Bilibili Gaming67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3192…71fbbacked Bilibili Gaming67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663759.5%22 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5bc8…a2e4backed TEC Esports33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663754.1%20 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-7.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5c85…5cd6backed TEC Esports33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663748.6%18 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.