NBA · resolved market

Knicks vs. Bulls: O/U 230.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x881ca6f2494e7ee5de4163d7c1ba332fa29ac2271d41d4ac8e1e8aa7769e240f

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Feb 23, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $61,245
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $61,455

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,245 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Over	56c	34,976$19,622 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19,621.88	435	42.8%186 W · 249 L	-7.6wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	44c	21,038$9,296 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,742.14	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed Under	44c	5,063$2,228 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,835.53	226	48.2%109 W · 117 L	-5.5wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under	44c	4,640$2,023 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,617.2	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Under	46c	1,676$771 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$905.04	956	51.5%492 W · 464 L	+23.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over	56c	1,499$842 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$842.25	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	45c	1,185$535 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$649.85	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Under	45c	1,090$490 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$600.29	715	47.7%341 W · 374 L	-26.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6e3…6dfebacked Under	44c	1,090$480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$610.4	230	52.6%121 W · 109 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over	1c	1,030$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.22	679	21.4%145 W · 534 L	+32.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under	44c	945.43$414 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$531.65	2,507	48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L	+19.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9de4…7f2ebacked Over	59c	900$531 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$531	98	42.9%42 W · 56 L	-5.7wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	44c	865.15$381 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$483.85	2,346	48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L	-14.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Over	9c	786.42$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.04	288	42.7%123 W · 165 L	+6.6wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under	44c	753.46$332 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$421.94	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	45c	363.68$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$198.57	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8ca…cccbbacked Under	50c	257.5$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.75	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.22per pick	38cpaid	+60.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under	44c	200$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Under	43c	200$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Over	56c	194.82$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	277	46.6%129 W · 148 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over	57c	120.56$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.72	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	44c	113.63$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.63	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82f6…1848backed Under	45c	111.11$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.11	121	52.1%63 W · 58 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a50…ea80backed Under	43c	105.58$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.18	145	33.1%48 W · 97 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-14%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Over	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1,110	52%577 W · 533 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa6c…a67dbacked Under	44c	90.56$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.42	62	35.5%22 W · 40 L	-10.3wins	-0.17per pick	52cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x0644…05debacked Over	54c	75$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.5	178	44.4%79 W · 99 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Over	57c	54.77$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.27	1,197	48.9%585 W · 612 L	-14.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed Over	58c	51.72$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	408	49%200 W · 208 L	-12.8wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under	55c	51.41$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.13	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Over	45c	51.41$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.13	293	52.6%154 W · 139 L	+14.1wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+26%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x859d…3cecbacked Over	55c	50.15$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.58	508	41.7%212 W · 296 L	-11.2wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa42b…45d2backed Over	59c	50$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	96	53.1%51 W · 45 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Under	43c	48.99$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.93	1,018	51.6%525 W · 493 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under	45c	45.15$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.83	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfffb…5f95backed Under	48c	41.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.67	241	50.2%121 W · 120 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e9d…9e33backed Over	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	116	63.8%74 W · 42 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	63cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Under	55c	28.27$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.72	658	72.8%479 W · 179 L	+46.1wins	+0.07per pick	66cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under	43c	25$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.25	786	48.7%383 W · 403 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Knicks vs. Bulls: O/U 230.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event