NBA · resolved market
Knicks vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f29119e5af46017ecd5de5c01259ddcc1ea258a9374cba109c8e8572d48ca8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4435…0840backed Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 266 | 48.5%129 W · 137 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 50c | 8,454$4,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,227 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 50c | 4,716$2,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,358.18 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Under | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 795 | 49.7%395 W · 400 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…3dc9backed Over | 51c | 2,739$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,397 | 151 | 41.1%62 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Under | 49c | 1,632$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.53 | 382 | 51%195 W · 187 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1196…fe97backed Over | 50c | 1,332$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.76 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1997…2e36backed Under | 51c | 1,120$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.8 | 187 | 47.1%88 W · 99 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 50c | 682.36$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.7 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 653.22$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.68 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 493 | 45.2%223 W · 270 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Under | 51c | 348.1$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 48c | 257.72$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.71 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 49c | 248.1$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.57 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc1…36bbbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…8133backed Over | 10c | 159.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 51c | 124.45$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.98 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4992…9cd4backed Under | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 255 | 59.2%151 W · 104 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…644bbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e0…0d61backed Over | 20c | 58.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 403 | 44.4%179 W · 224 L | -23.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfffb…5f95backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 241 | 50.2%121 W · 120 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8a…4b6cbacked Under | 52c | 30.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 405 | 48.6%197 W · 208 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 49c | 24.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 51c | 20.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7492…6568backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 319 | 55.2%176 W · 143 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Knicks vs. Bulls: O/U 233.5this page
- Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Jalen Smith: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Josh Giddey: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Knicks vs. BullsKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Bulls: O/U 230.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Bulls: O/U 231.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Bulls: O/U 232.5Under won
- Spread: Knicks (-10.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Knicks (-9.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.