TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs SemperFi Esports (BO3) - GangKui Cup Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
SemperFi Esportsof TYLOO, SemperFi Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$69,237
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$73,776

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,237 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0438…9d98backed TYLOO59c4,258$2,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,505.7724346.9%114 W · 129 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c30…54a2backed TYLOO78c4,227$3,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,278.983066.7%20 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe705…f910backed SemperFi Esports40c4,176$1,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,507.043751.4%19 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed SemperFi Esports50c3,753$1,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,877.5751252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed SemperFi Esports22c3,500$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,734.991,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x582a…ae39backed TYLOO60c2,709$1,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,634.617250%36 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked SemperFi Esports41c2,661$1,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,573.347,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed SemperFi Esports22c2,380$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,856.3611637.9%44 W · 72 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0caf…91adbacked TYLOO63c2,320$1,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,466.9812465.3%81 W · 43 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed TYLOO76c2,018$1,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,535.5185446.4%396 W · 458 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93af…32abbacked TYLOO18c1,565$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.6810247.1%48 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed TYLOO20c1,500$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.9958651%299 W · 287 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed SemperFi Esports45c1,365$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.056,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed SemperFi Esports48c1,345$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.6553746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b39…3234backed TYLOO67c1,249$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.0931345%141 W · 172 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8548…e4c1backed SemperFi Esports39c1,230$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.542568%17 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+14.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc362…0f5ebacked TYLOO2c1,107$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked TYLOO10c999.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked SemperFi Esports24c954.68$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.0653545%241 W · 294 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f17…7035backed TYLOO77c936.7$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.0645465.9%299 W · 155 L+20.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa17c…b2e6backed SemperFi Esports47c893.21$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.47566.7%50 W · 25 L+5.9wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed TYLOO9c882.45$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2225147.8%120 W · 131 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd507…a6ddbacked TYLOO78c862.53$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.55843.1%25 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed TYLOO63c838.39$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.94,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf901…5f48backed TYLOO59c811.69$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.558444%37 W · 47 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x26ac…a735backed SemperFi Esports24c800$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60824429.5%72 W · 172 L-0.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked TYLOO78c773.31$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.1820458.3%119 W · 85 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed SemperFi Esports18c728.13$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.1132732.4%106 W · 221 L-0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked SemperFi Esports41c646.21$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.175,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed SemperFi Esports25c637.22$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.6725634.4%88 W · 168 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-23.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf36e…f91cbacked TYLOO24c627.03$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.3129839.3%117 W · 181 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd23…387ebacked SemperFi Esports44c622.09$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.7729154%157 W · 134 L+17.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked SemperFi Esports23c615.55$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.161,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed SemperFi Esports41c613.72$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.955,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed TYLOO61c596.95$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.1446340.8%189 W · 274 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed SemperFi Esports50c582$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2911,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4969…6d77backed SemperFi Esports27c518.92$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.8622734.4%78 W · 149 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed SemperFi Esports24c490.88$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.229851.3%153 W · 145 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7193…ae51backed TYLOO69c452.66$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.3929858.4%174 W · 124 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked SemperFi Esports17c429.31$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.3311646.6%54 W · 62 L-6.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e8f…870ebacked SemperFi Esports12c400.14$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.1222542.7%96 W · 129 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked TYLOO75c400$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30049849.6%247 W · 251 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5206…0f4cbacked TYLOO73c400$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29226535.5%94 W · 171 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9037…0386backed TYLOO48c386.49$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.893215.6%5 W · 27 L-8.2wins-0.26per pick41cpaid-67.9%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xd537…0f7cbacked TYLOO71c346.51$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.0233457.8%193 W · 141 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0510…4c9cbacked SemperFi Esports24c343.36$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.8213449.3%66 W · 68 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1769…94efbacked SemperFi Esports32c336.48$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.7391648.9%448 W · 468 L+4.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x21ec…7307backed SemperFi Esports29c335.45$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.7413267.4%89 W · 43 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeca1…57e4backed SemperFi Esports17c320.81$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.6413436.6%49 W · 85 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed SemperFi Esports24c300$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22854032.4%175 W · 365 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed TYLOO72c298.58$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.4148350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c69…962ebacked SemperFi Esports32c298.28$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.963540%14 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f30…3aeebacked SemperFi Esports36c263.83$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.858353%44 W · 39 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed SemperFi Esports44c242.48$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.3813246.2%61 W · 71 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c10…0880backed SemperFi Esports40c241$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.63330.3%10 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b8d…6d3bbacked TYLOO75c202.68$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.671163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5ff…abd0backed TYLOO75c200$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15038650.8%196 W · 190 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2409…215ebacked SemperFi Esports29c165.65$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.7812746.5%59 W · 68 L-11.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-13.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x440d…351fbacked TYLOO73c164.56$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.84850%4 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed TYLOO52c155.36$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.422,46824.6%607 W · 1,861 L-317.8wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-51.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xbfce…5c3ebacked TYLOO76c154.3$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.338537.6%32 W · 53 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x845e…3ed3backed TYLOO77c153.8$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.162748.1%13 W · 14 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick61cpaid-17.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc011…bf70backed SemperFi Esports33c152.32$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.586338.1%24 W · 39 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ff…6431backed TYLOO76c150.47$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.9123165.8%152 W · 79 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc38d…48e3backed SemperFi Esports14c148.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.811747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac1…3afebacked TYLOO46c143.92$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.571947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed SemperFi Esports67c143.78$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3795849.8%477 W · 481 L-17.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked SemperFi Esports44c140.72$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.0338858.2%226 W · 162 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe564…221abacked SemperFi Esports25c135.91$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.481,07832%345 W · 733 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe02f…3d4cbacked TYLOO77c135.27$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.5317053.5%91 W · 79 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked SemperFi Esports46c130.43$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.4384037.9%318 W · 522 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4de…0da4backed TYLOO77c129.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9333960.8%206 W · 133 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ac8…45c4backed SemperFi Esports37c129.44$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.331735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-23.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed SemperFi Esports44c128.77$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.71,10950.5%560 W · 549 L-3.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8149…9ed6backed TYLOO77c128.27$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.61333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick66cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99be…3622backed SemperFi Esports41c127.66$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.669758.8%57 W · 40 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed SemperFi Esports18c126.03$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.162,10216.8%353 W · 1,749 L-286.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x9a0d…32e1backed SemperFi Esports23c124.41$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.793132.3%10 W · 21 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+26.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd44…be3ebacked TYLOO76c116.17$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.29850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x118d…0d42backed SemperFi Esports12c115.27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.047131%22 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2468…b7ecbacked TYLOO64c107.01$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.49933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6722…865fbacked SemperFi Esports47c103$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.5927754.9%152 W · 125 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed SemperFi Esports25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7533241.6%138 W · 194 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xced8…221ebacked SemperFi Esports19c99.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.9970038.9%272 W · 428 L-29.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x58f2…692ebacked SemperFi Esports25c99.32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.4917150.3%86 W · 85 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0c8…97b4backed TYLOO54c97.24$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5147165.2%307 W · 164 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a84…e21abacked SemperFi Esports40c96.51$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.556741.8%28 W · 39 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+33.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x423f…eedcbacked SemperFi Esports33c95.98$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.3140655.7%226 W · 180 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdda0…edaabacked SemperFi Esports43c95.77$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.062934.5%10 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-44.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5625…6c2abacked SemperFi Esports38c94.68$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.5136151.8%187 W · 174 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x212e…791abacked SemperFi Esports45c93.94$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.612755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc80…77b4backed SemperFi Esports43c91.42$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.81668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+23.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d48…f5a2backed SemperFi Esports32c89.93$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.156959.4%41 W · 28 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x00a8…c071backed SemperFi Esports17c89.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.232445.8%11 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+35.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8359…5944backed TYLOO25c86.1$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8969732%223 W · 474 L-46.0wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-32.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf91e…7e0bbacked SemperFi Esports29c85.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.7153859.3%319 W · 219 L+18.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed SemperFi Esports40c85.04$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.316654.5%36 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed SemperFi Esports40c84.85$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.5549143%211 W · 280 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2df…2368backed TYLOO61c83.39$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7811750.4%59 W · 58 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed TYLOO76c82.17$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.451560%9 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick76cpaid-21.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.