TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs MINLATE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MINLATEof UNiTY esports, MINLATE
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,634

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,634 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdbdd…a5debacked UNiTY esports54c5,260$2,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,824.427,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked UNiTY esports58c5,221$3,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,008.8484454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7dc…2541backed MINLATE50c4,787$2,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,411.432100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+132.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5407…251cbacked MINLATE50c3,295$1,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,647.3214857.4%85 W · 63 L+11.9wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+22.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb04b…e2d4backed MINLATE43c3,242$1,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,858.7712752%66 W · 61 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x889e…520abacked MINLATE47c2,337$1,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,248.354254.8%23 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3db4…d69bbacked MINLATE51c2,100$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.9975056.8%426 W · 324 L+47.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fc2…64d1backed UNiTY esports55c2,049$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,121.6520942.1%88 W · 121 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed MINLATE50c1,600$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8001,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked UNiTY esports61c1,567$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.592,32655.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L+44.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed UNiTY esports46c1,320$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.8480744.6%360 W · 447 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2757…55f0backed UNiTY esports65c1,007$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.7824641.9%103 W · 143 L-14.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x861f…a189backed MINLATE23c895.05$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.0192152.6%484 W · 437 L+16.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed UNiTY esports53c803.5$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.8631642.1%133 W · 183 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8b6…c7dbbacked MINLATE49c744$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.3236253.3%193 W · 169 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed UNiTY esports55c718.72$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.9239239.8%156 W · 236 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked MINLATE42c713.86$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.263,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed UNiTY esports49c700$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3435,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc2f…a15fbacked UNiTY esports53c600$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.6519055.8%106 W · 84 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed MINLATE48c549.1$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.915,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed MINLATE42c541.69$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.271,54733.9%524 W · 1,023 L-73.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed MINLATE42c507.04$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.8517034.7%59 W · 111 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed MINLATE38c481$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.7338037.4%142 W · 238 L-14.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbcf2…1e5bbacked UNiTY esports53c449.99$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.2523858%138 W · 100 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x92f5…13e5backed UNiTY esports34c400$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13715142.4%64 W · 87 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf91c…edcdbacked UNiTY esports73c392.71$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.51837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed MINLATE39c382.17$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.184,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed MINLATE43c368.26$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.492,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed UNiTY esports61c362.33$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2226,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd23…387ebacked UNiTY esports58c345$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.3529154%157 W · 134 L+17.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16e3…5476backed MINLATE41c337$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.831258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+31.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa11d…72a8backed UNiTY esports48c334.39$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.5110442.3%44 W · 60 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad09…3c3fbacked MINLATE46c311.09$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.0911344.2%50 W · 63 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8945…640bbacked UNiTY esports53c308.99$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.0226257.6%151 W · 111 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a8d…ab7ebacked MINLATE55c300$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13516846.4%78 W · 90 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed UNiTY esports53c296$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.9946843.4%203 W · 265 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed MINLATE46c295$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.241,30426.5%345 W · 959 L-89.4wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-29.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed UNiTY esports51c289.78$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.328660.1%172 W · 114 L+17.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4687…8d42backed MINLATE76c289.06$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.0652947.1%249 W · 280 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0d4…0289backed UNiTY esports35c285.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017546.3%81 W · 94 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdad…9eaebacked UNiTY esports55c264.29$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.5825337.9%96 W · 157 L-14.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e07…3545backed MINLATE26c260$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.257647.4%36 W · 40 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed UNiTY esports51c254.9$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301,04645%471 W · 575 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e0…8eb7backed UNiTY esports59c254$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.861050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+25.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed UNiTY esports60c252.69$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.7183543.6%364 W · 471 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked UNiTY esports59c247.19$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.675,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed UNiTY esports55c245.42$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.3333352.6%175 W · 158 L+0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked UNiTY esports43c231.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10071951%367 W · 352 L+28.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d0e…13aabacked UNiTY esports50c228.52$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.2615638.5%60 W · 96 L-19.6wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-25.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1769…94efbacked MINLATE50c219.99$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.8491648.9%448 W · 468 L+4.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked UNiTY esports54c216.03$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.735,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4d8…c3f8backed UNiTY esports59c202$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.4811242%47 W · 65 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked MINLATE48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.595642.6%407 W · 549 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fbb…39dabacked MINLATE41c200$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.99349.5%46 W · 47 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+32.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xebe2…e4d2backed UNiTY esports60c200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12012344.7%55 W · 68 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x928a…8044backed MINLATE45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11020358.6%119 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7447…91ecbacked MINLATE37c185.43$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.4912348%59 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed UNiTY esports59c180.01$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10618837.2%70 W · 118 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed UNiTY esports58c172.52$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.295849.8%477 W · 481 L-17.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4a3…bce8backed UNiTY esports33c167.83$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.633262.5%20 W · 12 L+6.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+61.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed UNiTY esports62c150.03$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9359343.2%256 W · 337 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed UNiTY esports59c150$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.51,14643.5%499 W · 647 L-17.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xedd1…45a9backed UNiTY esports12c135$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.744010%4 W · 36 L-6.0wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-79.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed UNiTY esports51c127.53$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9796543.5%420 W · 545 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked MINLATE67c127$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5448948.7%238 W · 251 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed MINLATE48c121.72$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.3769863%440 W · 258 L+65.3wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed MINLATE46c116.81$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.4931735.6%113 W · 204 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed MINLATE45c110$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.59540%38 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed UNiTY esports33c109$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7546344.5%206 W · 257 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92f8…0e1fbacked MINLATE32c105.98$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.0712946.5%60 W · 69 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked UNiTY esports37c99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6360147.4%285 W · 316 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed MINLATE35c93.74$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.5552755.8%294 W · 233 L+23.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked UNiTY esports53c93.24$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.081,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8821…32c6backed UNiTY esports49c91.14$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.665957.6%34 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ba6…2a7ebacked MINLATE40c90$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542951.7%15 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+22.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb68…c695backed UNiTY esports61c85$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.853852.6%20 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa62c…a3c1backed MINLATE52c83.51$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.0510651.9%55 W · 51 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked MINLATE31c83$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.232,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0f3…f7dfbacked UNiTY esports60c83$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.818063.9%115 W · 65 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3bd…d06dbacked UNiTY esports59c82$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.381030%3 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-49.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed MINLATE23c77$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.361,5009.9%148 W · 1,352 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f34…ed6abacked MINLATE41c77$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.3221536.3%78 W · 137 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed UNiTY esports51c75.35$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.431,31944.2%583 W · 736 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed UNiTY esports21c75$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162,46824.6%607 W · 1,861 L-317.8wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-51.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked UNiTY esports35c73$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.854346.2%251 W · 292 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69fa…e259backed UNiTY esports31c69.17$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2160954%329 W · 280 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked MINLATE52c68$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5149745.9%228 W · 269 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc55…a069backed UNiTY esports59c67.8$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409852%51 W · 47 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedaa…89b4backed MINLATE52c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.824535.9%88 W · 157 L-11.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed MINLATE54c57$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2829244.5%130 W · 162 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4f5…7a95backed MINLATE70c53.12$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1223751.5%122 W · 115 L-14.7wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x155b…d7babacked UNiTY esports58c52.1$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3140652.2%212 W · 194 L+22.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed MINLATE50c51$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.539237.2%146 W · 246 L-0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x931c…bf4bbacked MINLATE40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3032351.4%166 W · 157 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8948…76e5backed MINLATE46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2740457.2%231 W · 173 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf0…b95dbacked MINLATE52c49.01$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5218751.3%96 W · 91 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1986…a434backed UNiTY esports67c48.15$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.341154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed UNiTY esports41c44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0945224.3%110 W · 342 L-52.4wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-45.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0386…2b1abacked UNiTY esports35c42.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9970036.1%253 W · 447 L+18.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+26.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ce2…4b11backed MINLATE30c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287341.1%30 W · 43 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.