Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8931ecd421c93031a96bd51f1a4d36f008ef05902d9d3c7289f1d42745ef34c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f03…b1bebacked Under | 57c | 1,875$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.56 | 1,132 | 52.5%594 W · 538 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e15…7531backed Under | 58c | 1,333$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.14 | 105 | 41.9%44 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Over | 42c | 1,279$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.68 | 219 | 46.6%102 W · 117 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Under | 59c | 1,131$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.29 | 2,178 | 53.4%1,164 W · 1,014 L | +61.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…4b1dbacked Over | 43c | 638.92$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.18 | 248 | 36.7%91 W · 157 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ea…6791backed Over | 41c | 590.24$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.24 | 226 | 44.2%100 W · 126 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e0…708fbacked Over | 43c | 480.87$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.27 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781d…201bbacked Over | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 147 | 48.3%71 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Under | 59c | 351.58$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.98 | 230 | 57.8%133 W · 97 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed Under | 62c | 335.69$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.76 | 166 | 54.2%90 W · 76 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed Over | 41c | 324.56$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.49 | 427 | 35.4%151 W · 276 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Under | 57c | 300.73$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.93 | 198 | 30.8%61 W · 137 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6983…88c3backed Over | 43c | 276.4$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.89 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…ea90backed Over | 41c | 270$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.3 | 1,117 | 48.8%545 W · 572 L | +40.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Over | 35c | 250$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 282 | 40.4%114 W · 168 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Over | 41c | 237.57$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.92 | 421 | 49.2%207 W · 214 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 903 | 50.8%459 W · 444 L | +17.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…2fe4backed Under | 58c | 170$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 566 | 50%283 W · 283 L | -14.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ea…f74abacked Over | 42c | 170$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd998…397abacked Under | 58c | 169.18$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 43c | 157.32$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.34 | 2,540 | 39.7%1,009 W · 1,531 L | -79.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Under | 58c | 149.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.99 | 227 | 48.9%111 W · 116 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb603…c701backed Over | 43c | 128.72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.37 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…f437backed Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76ff…425fbacked Over | 42c | 107.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +202.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82c…4d93backed Over | 42c | 104.66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…d4a0backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d34…e654backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2338…27f6backed Over | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 59c | 63.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 1,343 | 49%658 W · 685 L | -26.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Over | 43c | 62.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 386 | 55.2%213 W · 173 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6926…152dbacked Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 843 | 60.1%507 W · 336 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Over | 41c | 36.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa73a…27d9backed Over | 43c | 25.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 396 | 52%206 W · 190 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58cc…6415backed Over | 42c | 25.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | -9.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -34%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?this page
- Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5)LYON won
- Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)LYON won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational PlayoffsLYON won
- LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports - Game 1 WinnerLYON won
- LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports - Game 2 WinnerLYON won
- LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports - Game 3 WinnerLYON won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.